< PreviousWORLD CHANGING TRENDS AND TECHT ODAY OUR VUCA-MAX world is changing faster than at any point in human history. To put this into perspective it’s estimated that in the next 20 years technologically at least we’ll see more progress made than in the past 20,000 years. Furthermore, as the rate of change accelerates and as every corner of society is disrupted not only are people finding it harder to envision what the future could look like and what’s next, but they also have less time to develop a point of view and adapt. It’s unsurprising, therefore, that today more people are anxious about the future than ever before. So, in response to this problem and to try to simplify the Future and Deep Future for you I created the 311 Institute’s Codex of the Future Series which gives you everything, literally everything, you need to envision, build, and lead your own desired future. THE 311 CODEX OF THE FUTURE SERIES Created to democratise access to the Future and Deep future for everyone irrespective of their ability or background the 311 Institute Codex of the Future Series is quite literally a one stop shop for everything that you need to envision, build, shape, and lead your own future whether you represent a country, an organisation, or are simply a future curious individual. In it you will find intelligence and insights on every signal, technology, and trend you could possibly imagine, and many more that you couldn’t, and every futures framework, program, and tool you could ever need. To explore the entire series and download the others Codexes just click or scan the QR code below. 71311institute.com CODEX OF THE FUTURE SERIES DOWNLOADTHE TRENDS O UR PAST, present, and future have many things in common, and the influence of trends throughout the ages is one of them. However, while the trends themselves have changed over time their direct and indirect influence on business, culture, and society remains as iron clad as ever. Unlike the past though as connectivity, digitisation, and travel continue to make our world a smaller place today the impact of emerging trends, wherever they originate, can be felt almost instantaneously, transcend borders, and influence even the remotest regions of the world. Furthermore, unlike the past global trends today have a much greater regional impact than they ever would have or could have in the past. Not only does this change our lives in ways that were unfathomable and unimaginable just a few decades ago, but it also forces us to adapt to and deal with far flung realities that historically were out of mind and out of reach. THE 311 ANNUAL TRENDS CODEX As the rate of change accelerates exponentially and as our world becomes more complex to predict and navigate it can be difficult to stay up to date with the trends that influence the topics you care about the most - like those we’ve discussed in this Codex. To solve this I created the 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex, part of my Codex of the Future Series, a living Codex that’s constantly updated with all of the latest trends and insights, and which you can download for free from the 311 Institute website. As you’ll see from the following pages in this section and the example trend I’ve done my best to simplify all of this complexity for you by splitting the Codex into STEEP, Sector, and Universal Line of Business categories, and providing you with easy to follow trends insights and calls to action that make it quick for you to find, learn about, and act on the trends you’re most interested in.ECONOMIC TRENDS ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS POLITICAL TRENDS SOCIETAL TRENDS TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS UNIVERSAL TRENDS SECTOR TRENDS BUSINESS MODELS CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE HR AND TRAINING ICT MARKETING OPERATING MODEL R&D SECURITY SUPPLY CHAIN SUSTAINABILITY WORKFORCE WORKPLACE AEROSPACE AGRICULTURE AVIATION CONSTRUCTION DEFENCE EDUCATION ENERGY FINANCIAL SERVICES GAMING HEALTHCARE INSURANCE LOGISTICS MANUFACTURING MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT RETAIL SPORTS TELECOMS TRANSPORT 311 TRENDS EXPLORER . FIND TRENDS FASTCLIMATE CHANGE 2ND YEAR ON THE LIST QUICK TAKE Scientists saw it coming in the 1950’s. They called it out and made films about it in the 1980’s. And now, over forty years later individuals, governments, and organisations are starting to take unilateral global action to tackle Climate Change with many scientist arguing that we are now too late to avoid a “life altering” 1.5C increase in average global temperatures, and that we are within years of crossing a climate tipping point which will see its devastating global effects accelerate and create a run away cascade of Extreme Weather and devastation. IMPACT The impact of Climate Change can be seen everywhere - from the changes of the seasons, and the subtle changes in the flora and fauna in peoples gardens, to the tree covered mountain slopes that used to be buried by glaciers and snow, to the expanding deserts of the Sahara, and the deep of the oceans. It impacts every living thing and every natural system on Earth. From longer frost free growing seasons, to changes in global rain patterns, longer droughts and more intense heat waves, and more extreme weather, to more powerful hurricanes and higher sea levels, the consequences are as varied as they are acute. If the world warms by 1.5C then the Arctic Ocean will become ice free once every 100 years, with extreme hot days in the mid-latitudes being at least 3C hotter than pre-industrial levels, and sea levels could rise by up to 0.77m, with a further decrease in global bio-diversity of between 5% and 8%. Meanwhile corals could decline by at least 70% with marine fisheries annual productivity declining by at least 1.5 Million tons. And a 2C rise would be exponentially worse for people and planet. EXAMPLES Earth is mission critical for humanity and all life on Earth. And as the rate of Climate Change accelerates we continue to see a variety of records being set and smashed with climactic events that used to be once in a century becoming once a decade, and then the norm. And examples of these are plentiful. Greenland’s ice sheet, the world’s second largest after Antarctica, is now melting 12 times faster than in the past 12,000 years and loosing over 532 Billion tons of ice a year - and that rate is accelerating. Not only does this melt account for almost 25% of today’s sea level rise, but in 2021 the melt rate accelerated even further when, during a time when temperatures in the region were already 18C higher than average, three days worth of rain - where the rain itself was a first for the region - dumped over 7 Billion tons of rain water onto the ice sheet. And, from the world’s biggest, deadliest, and most damaging floods, to the world’s biggest, deadliest, and most damaging droughts, heatwaves, hurricanes, and wildfires almost every country on the planet is now feeing the damaging impacts of climate change. 74311institute.com 9 Data sources: IPCC, National Geographic, WWF, and various. ACT NOW As we see elsewhere in our universe, from the dust dunes of Mars to the acidic oceans of Venus, our planet will always be able to adapt to new climactic conditions. But life on Earth will find it increasingly difficult as Climate Change accelerates and its effects become more extreme and pronounced. Therefore, ironically, tackling this trend is more about saving humanity’s future than the planets. EXPLORE: •Carbon Capture and Storage •Emerging technologies and technology roadmaps •Future of Agriculture, Energy, Government, Manufacturing, Sustainability, Transportation, and Work •Net Zero Pledges •Unilateral global accords and coordinated global action ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS EXPLOREEVALUATE ACT UN SDG 13 EXPLORE STARTUPS & MORE EXPLORE5 / TREND PRIORITY The higher the number the more attention and weight you should give the trend. 6 / TREND MOMENTUM ASCENDINGFLATDESCENDING The overall momentum of the trend. 7 / TIMING OF THE TREND HERE NOWEMERGINGDISTANT When the trend is expected to have a measurable and pronounced impact. 8 / RELATED TRENDS Other trends that either impact the trend or are impacted by it. USING THE TREND SHEETS 9 / DATA SOURCES A list of our data sources for the trend. 10 / IMAGE An image to portray the trend. 11 / ACTION The action we suggest organisations take now based on the available data. 12 / EXPLORE Other things you can or should explore to better understand the trend and how to solve or use it to your advantage. 13 / DISCOVER MORE Click or scan the QR code to access more website resources related to the trend. 1 / UNITED NATIONS SDG NUMBER The UN SDG most impacted if you act on the trend. 2 / TREND NAME The most appropriate name for the trend. 3 / YEARS IN THE CODEX How many years the trend has been listed in our codex since the first edition. 4 / TREND LONGEVITY LONG MEDIUMSHORT T he trends longevity and how long it is expected to have an impact for. IN THIS codex we’ve gone to great lengths to document the major trends affecting all sectors and line of business operations and simplify them for you. Furthermore, we’re always surfacing more trends which is why this codex is regularly updated. As a result each trend contains all manner of action points, details, insights, and stats that you can use to your advantage, whether it’s developing scenarios and strategies using the frameworks in this and our other Codexes, or whether it’s just exploring the art of the possible. This is the key to the sheets:THE TECH Y OU DON’T have to look far to see technology’s impact on Human civilisation. Now though we live in an age where Artificial Intelligence with its grasp of human language and its ability to create content is capable enough to not just re-write human history, but also define and direct the future of Humankind itself. And if that doesn’t give you pause for thought then it should. Historically our technologies have been little more than dumb prosthetics but today they are increasingly intelligent, powerful, and sophisticated. Furthermore, when combined together and fused into our increasingly inter- connected and digital society they are changing the world faster today than at any point in human history. Despite this though we know that in time today’s powerful technologies will be superseded by even more powerful ones, many of which we can see now circling above us like the stars in the Heavens, just biding their time waiting to fall to Earth where their impact will be total. However, while this shouldn’t be a surprise in itself what might be is the number of technologies that we, and increasingly the so called Creative Machines, who can create and invent their own products and realities independently of humans, have at our disposal. Today I track over 600 with on average 60 being added every year. THE 311 EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGY CODEX Consequently trying to stay abreast of these technologies and understand their impact on the topics you care most about, like those we discuss in this Codex, is difficult. So, to solve this I created the 311 Institute Exponential Technology Codex: The Next 50 Years, part of my Codex of the Future Series, a living Codex that’s constantly updated with all the latest technologies and insights, and which you can download for free from the 311 Institute website. As you’ll see from the following pages in this section, as well as the collection of Annual Griffin Emerging Technology Starbursts, complete with that years biggest breakthroughs, and the example technology, I’ve done my best to simplify this complexity for you and provide you with easy to follow technology insights and calls to action that make it quick for you to find, learn about, and act on the technologies - and timelines - you care about the most.MATTHEW GRIFFIN 311INSTITUTE.com TECHNOLOGY ALCHEMY DON’T THINK ABOUT INDIVIDUAL TECHNOLOGIES THINK COMBINATIONS1 MRL /9 7 /10 4 TRL /9 L IVING ROBOTS, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to create robots that are alive, but not necessarily sentient, or, as others describe it “Programmable Organisms.” Recent breakthroughs in the field include the use of Artificial Intelligence, a supercomputer, and stem cells to create the world’s first truly living robots that were adaptable and responded to external stimuli. DEFINITION Living Robots are neither traditional robot nor animal but are a form of re-programmable and controllable cell based living machine. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using prototypes to prove the theory behind the technology and refine it. In the future the primary use case of this technology could be almost unlimited and they could be used in everything from monitoring pollution levels all the way through to being involved in in vivo healthcare treatments. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a very low base, primarily led by university grants. In time we will see the technology mature to the point where it is safe and viable, as well as commercially feasible, but given the nature of the technology it is highly likely that it will be subject to stringent regulatory scrutiny which will inevitably delay its adoption. While Living Robots are in the Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Bio-Sensors, Creative Machines, Evolutionary Robotics, Semi-Synthetic Cells, Simulation Engines, Stem Cells, Synthetic Biology, Synthetic Cells, Synthetic DNA, and Swarm Robotics, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, and establish a point of view, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 2 6 8 2 1 8 1997 2006 2019 2033 2046 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT LIVING ROBOTS STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 78311institute.com 16 2 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 4 5 3USING THE TECHNOLOGY SHEETS 7 / INTRODUCTION A quick introductory summary. 8 / DEFINITION The best definition for the technology. 9 / EXAMPLE USE CASES Uses cases to spark the imagination. 10 / FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY The estimated future development trajectory including anything that could supersede it. 11 / MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION My next step recommendations. 12 / STARBURST APPEARANCES The annual Griffin Emerging Technology Starbursts the technology’s appeared on. 13 / IMPACT It’s overall estimated impact, disruptive nature, and primary deployment method. EVOLUTIONARYCENTRALISED DISRUPTIVEDISTRIBUTED DECENTRALISED 14 / STATUS This panel summaries the technology’s market readiness with estimated dates. IDEA CONCEPT PROTOTYPE PRODUCTISATION MASS ADOPTION LOW HIGH 15 / PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS The primary development regions. 1 / HERO IMAGE An appropriate image for the technology. 2 / QR CODE WITH HYPER LINK Scan or click the QR code to be taken to the latest news about the technology. 3 / MANUFACTURING READINESS LEVEL The average MRL on a scale of 1 to 9 where 9 is the most mature. 4 / TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL The average TRL on a scale of 1 to 9 where 9 is the most mature. 5 / WEAPONISATION POTENTIAL The technology’s average weaponisation potential on a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is the most dangerous and deadly. 6 / TECHNOLOGY NAME The technology’s official name or the one that best represents it. HIGH MODERATE LOW AS YOU can see I’ve gone to great lengths to detail as many emerging technologies as possible and simplify them for you. As a result each technology sheet contains tons of information to help you develop new product concepts and explore the art of the possible. 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