< Previous7 /9 5 /10 9 TRL /9 F UEL CELLS, which are in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with creating the most optimal chemical reactions to create electricity and fuel, and it’s a field of research that is now decades old. Over the past few years there has been much debate about whether Fuel Cells, or their competitive Lithium Ion battery counterparts will win in the end, and while there have been significant breakthroughs in the field it is increasingly looking like Fuel Cell technology won’t see the mass adoption it had once hoped. That said though as the world’s thirst for energy increases, and as the raw commodities needed to build LiOn batteries, such as Cobalt and Lithium, start to face unprecedented demand, there will be opportunities for the technology to outshine its traditional foe. DEFINITION Fuel Cells are devices that produce electricity as the result of a chemical reaction between a source fuel and an oxidant. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Fuel Cells to generate Hydrogen fuel to power vehicles. In the future the primary use case for the technology could be to augment mass scale and distributed energy generation. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, primarily led by organisations in the Energy sector, and industry consortiums, however, as alternative forms of energy generation and storage gain attention it is increasingly likely that Fuel Cell technology will fail to live up to its initial promise and fade by the wayside. While Fuel Cells are in the Productisation Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing, Artificial Intelligence, Creative Machines, Nano- Manufacturing, and Printable Batteries, but in the long term they will be replaced by a myriad of alternatives including Bio-Batteries, Biofuels, Photovoltaics, Semi-Synthetic Energy Systems, and Structural Batteries. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 8 6 8 7 7 7 5 8 1839 1881 1889 1991 2036 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘24 FUEL CELLS EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 270311institute.com MRL3 /9 5 /10 4 TRL /9 F USION, which is in the early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to create a Star in a Jar, a version of our Sun, captured in a magnetic containment vessel, that is capable of generating almost limitless amounts of clean energy. Currently researchers have made multiple breakthroughs in what is a vastly complex and difficult field, and in the past couple of years not only have the temperatures they have been able to run the fusion reactions at increased substantially, but so too has the period of time that they’ve been able to run them for. DEFINITION Fusion is a form of power generation where energy is generated by harnessing nuclear fusion reactions in order to produce heat for electricity generation. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first Fusion prototypes are being used to prove the theory that Fusion can be harnessed as a viable energy source before it is eventually productised. In the future the primary use cases for the technology will be as a centralised power generation facility capable of feeding huge amounts of electricity into the connected, global energy grid. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by Government funding and university grants, with help from large industrial consortiums. However, as the rate of progress in the field accelerates it is many researchers goal to one day create small truck sized Fusion reactors, and then eventually Cold Fusion energy systems capable of operating at room temperature. While Fusion is in the early Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Mega Magnets, Self-Healing Materials, and Vascular Nano- Composites, and eventually replaced by Quark Energy. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 1 2 4 9 7 4 7 1930 1947 1950 2030 2055 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT FUSION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 271311institute.com MRL7 /9 2 /10 9 TRL /9 G RAVITY BATTERIES, which are in the early Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new alternative battery systems that can store and release energy on demand, in this case by using power to lift a large mass during periods of energy surplus, and then dropping it during periods of increased energy demand to release the gravitational potential energy back to the grid as electricity. While there have been a variety of attempts to create these kinds of low cost battery systems it has only been recently that new designs have made them commercially feasible and now the technology is scaling. DEFINITION Gravity Batteries are large masses which accumulate and store gravitational energy when they are raised and release it as electricity when they are dropped. EXAMPLE USE CASES While there are a number of examples the two most common include the raising and lowering of giant concrete masses within deep mine shafts, and the use of massive terrestrial crane-like systems which again raise and lower concrete blocks to store and release electricity as and when the grid demands it. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, albeit from a low base, primarily led by organisations in the energy sector. In time we will see Gravity Batteries play a greater role in supporting the energy mix than they do today but it is highly likely that they will remain a fringe technology that’s unlikely to see mass adoption. While Gravity Batteries are in the early Productisation Stage over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, however in the longer term it is highly likely that they will be superseded by cheaper battery and energy storage alternatives such as Polymer Batteries and others. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, and re-visit it every few years until progress in this space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 5 5 4 7 7 4 3 8 1997 2001 2018 2022 2034 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT GRAVITY BATTERIES STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘22 272311institute.com EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. MRL9 /9 4 /10 9 TRL /9 G RID SCALE ENERGY STORAGE, which is in the early Mass Adoption Stage, is the field of research concerned with finding new ways to store energy, especially that produced from renewable energy sources, for long periods of time and at low cost until it needs to be released and used by the grid. Recently there have been a number of breakthroughs in the field with the development of affordable, low cost Carbon Dioxide, ice, iron, and molten salt storage solutions, as well as the development of carbon free supercapacitors using new “miracle” Metal Organic Framework materials that will help dramatically lower the cost of manufacturing supercapacitors. In another boon for the field though car manufacturers have now realised that there’s a great after market for their Electric Vehicle’s (EV) second hand Lithium Ion batteries which can be used as the backbone of more traditional low cost Grid Scale Energy Storage platforms, as well as the ability to use EV’s themselves to support the grid. DEFINITION Grid Scale Energy Storage is a collection of methods used to store electrical energy on a large scale within an electrical power grid. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Grid Scale Energy Storage to store electricity from a mix of energy generation sources so that it can be fed into the grid when it’s needed. As it is today, in the future Grid Scale Energy Storage’s primary use case will be to act as a reserve power back up for the energy grid. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Energy, Manufacturing, and Technology sector, with support from government funding, industrial consortiums, and university grants. While Grid Scale Energy Storage is in the early Mass Adoption Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing, Artificial Intelligence, Bio-Batteries, Biofuels, Creative Machines, CRISPR Gene Editing, Graphene, Metal Organic Frameworks, and Supercapacitors, but it is unlikely to be replaced. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 9 5 6 3 9 7 6 9 1880 1891 1901 1910 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘23 GRID SCALE ENERGY STORAGE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 273311institute.com MRL5 /9 3 /10 8 TRL /9 L ASER ENERGY TRANSMISSION, which is in the early Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with finding new ways to use lasers to transmit electrical energy between systems. Recently there have been several breakthroughs in the field in increasing the efficiency and range of the technology, which can now operate over several miles, and researchers have been able to demonstrate that by using the technology to target photovoltaic cells on an aircraft’s wings they’ve been able to charge that aircraft in mid flight to keep it airborne indefinitely. As the technology’s efficiency and range continue to increase there will inevitably be more applications DEFINITION Laser Energy Transmission is the transmission of energy in the form of laser light through free space. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today Laser Energy Transmission prototypes have been used to keep drones airborne indefinitely. In the future the primary use cases for the technology will include using lasers to replenish failing satellites energy reserves, helping keep Pseudo Satellites that are providing communications services to rural communities aloft, and using the system to transmit energy from space based solar collectors and farms to base stations on Earth. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Defence and Energy sectors, with support from government funding. In time we will see the amount of energy that can be transmitted in this way, and the accuracy and distances it can be transmitted increase substantially, and while some of the lower power use cases, such as those operating at the KWh and MWh scale, will inevitably be replaced by new decentralised and sustainable energy generation technologies, it is unlikely that use cases where Gigawatt capacities need to be transmitted will be replaced any time soon. While Laser Energy Transmission is in the early Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Bio-Batteries, Nuclear Batteries, Lasers, Optics, Pseudo Satellites, and Photovoltaics, but at this point in time it’s unclear what will replace it. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 5 6 2 7 5 4 8 1986 1991 1998 2023 2030 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT LASER ENERGY TRANSMISSION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 274311institute.com MRL6 /9 2 /10 7 TRL /9 L ITHIUM-METAL BATTERIES, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to find better alternative battery types to today’s ubiquitous Lithium-Ion Batteries. Recently there have been a number of breakthroughs in the field which include the development of the first viable products that had a significantly higher energy density than other battery alternatives. Lithium-Metal Batteries are also gaining additional interest from organisations around the world because many see them as being a viable on ramp to the development of more ground breaking Solid State Batteries (SSBs). DEFINITION Lithium-Metal Batteries are lithium batteries with metal anodes. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today Lithium-Metal Batteries are generally being used in electric vehicle demonstrators, since that is where in the short term at least, the main market appears to be. In the future though this battery technology could find its way into all kinds of battery powered products and help fuel the transition to SSBs. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Energy sector, with support from government funding and university grants. In time we will see the technology mature and be commercialised, although there will likely be questions raised about its ability to scale. The technology could also end up being an important but transitional technology before industries switch to SSBs which are widely regarded as the “Jesus” of battery technology. While Lithium-Metal Batteries are in the Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing, Materials, and Printed Batteries, and in the long term it is likely that it will be replaced by different forms of Renewable Energy technologies, such as Photovoltaic Materials, as well as SSBs. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 4 4 8 4 6 2 1 7 2013 2016 2019 2027 2031 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 LITHIUM-METAL BATTERIES EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 275311institute.com MRL5 /9 2 /10 7 TRL /9 L ITHIUM SULPHUR Batteries, which are in the Concept Stage and early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new types of batteries that have a reduced dependence on rare Earth metals and that have superior energy density and performance to today’s traditional Lithium Ion Batteries. Recently there have been a number of breakthroughs in this field after researchers managed to create the first fast charging, viable Lithium- Sulphur Batteries capable of meeting the punishing demands of electric vehicles. DEFINITION Lithium-Sulphur Batteries are a type of rechargable battery with a high specific energy that are very light weight and cost effective to manufacture. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today researchers are still experimenting Lithium-Sulphur Batteries and are refining the technology. In the future the primary use cases for the technology include being the primary energy source used in electric aircraft, drones, and electric vehicles, as well as in any other platform or product where a low weight to high energy density ratio are an advantage. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the Energy and Transportation sectors. In time the technology will mature, but whether it can become a commercial reality and compete with all the other forms of battery technologies that are emerging is highly dubious. While Lithium-Sulphur Batteries are in the Concept Stage and early Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing and Materials, and in the longer term they could be replaced by a broad range of battery and energy technologies including but not limited to Bio-Batteries, Fuel Cells, Photovoltaics, Polymer Batteries, Solid State Batteries, Structural Batteries, and many others. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 4 4 8 4 6 2 1 7 2013 2016 2019 2027 2031 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT LITHIUM-SULPHUR BATTERIES STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 276311institute.com MRL4 /9 7 /10 7 TRL /9 M AGNETO HYDRO DYNAMIC DRIVES, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to extract the kinetic energy from the movement of gasses into electricity using magnetic fields. Recent breakthroughs include the development of new forms of hypersonic jet engines that not only generate ten times more thrust than traditional systems but do it consistently and smoothly - unlike conventional combustion engines which can only produce bursts of power because the fuels they use cannot produce ionised fluids fast enough to feed the engine quickly enough. While this technology has its roots in the 1970’s it’s now been re-imagined by the Chinese military who seem to be developing it successfully. DEFINITION Magneto Hydro Dynamics Drives are devices that convert the kinetic energy from hot ionised gasses into electricity using magnetic fields. EXAMPLE USE CASES While the main use cases for this technology are propulsion based this could be a key technology in the quest to create high performance engines for hypersonic vehicles and hypersonic weapons systems, and it could also could play a pivotal role in the future of space travel. Asides from these major use cases it could also be used in industrial processes where the precise control of fluid flow and propulsion is required, as well as for more conventional power generation applications that use conductive fluids, sea water, and even molten metal as the combustion source, including space based applications. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade we will continue to see interest and investment in Magneto Hydro Dynamic Generators increase, primarily driven by the Aerospace and Defense sectors. While this is an old technology at heart it is now increasingly looking like it could be key to helping China become dominant in the hypersonics field, and as the technology is developed it’s also highly likely that we could see several spin off technologies emerge. While Magneto Hydro Dynamic Generators are still in the Prototype Stage they could be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Materials, Quantum Computing, and other technologies, however over the long term it’s unclear what it could be superseded by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, establish a point of view, and re- visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 5 7 8 3 2 7 1971 1981 1983 2033 2046 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT MAGNETO HYDRO DYNAMIC DRIVES STARBURST APPEARANCES: NONE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 277311institute.com MRL5 /9 2 /10 7 TRL /9 M ECHANICAL BATTERIES, which are in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to develop batteries that have a mechanical component. Recent developments in adjacent technology fields including Carbon Nanotubes mean that researchers now have a path to creating Mechanical Batteries for electric vehicles that are capable of a 17,000 km range. DEFINITION Mechanical Batteries are batteries that store electricity by mechanical means. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today most Mechanical Batteries are being used within engine systems or industrial environments and are used as a compliment to other battery technologies and Grid Scale Energy Storage platforms. In the future the primary use case for this technology will be tied to mid to large scale products that are off grid or that have grid connectivity issues. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the Energy sector. In time we will see the technology mature to the point where mechanical batteries become more of a competitor to many of the other alternative battery technologies, but alot of that potential will be reliant on developments in other complimentary technology areas. While Mechanical Batteries are in the Productisation Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing and Carbon Nanotubes, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 5 5 7 5 8 2 1 7 1991 2001 2008 2010 2037 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT MECHANICAL BATTERIES STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 278311institute.com MRL5 /9 7 /10 9 TRL /9 M ICROWAVE ENERGY TRANSMISSION, which is in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to wirelessly beam, or transmit, energy from one location to another generally over long distances, including across mountain ranges and from space based orbiting power stations. Recently there have been a number of developments in the field which include building systems that can transmit more power, over greater distances, with greater reliability. Additionally, simultaneous advances in new Electromagnetic Metamaterials now also mean that the transmitted energy can be converted back into electricity with much greater efficiency which moves the whole field closer to mass commercialisation. DEFINITION Microwave Energy transmission is a technology that enables the long range wireless transmission of energy. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the majority of Microwave Energy Transmission systems are being used either by the military to remotely charge different types of drones, UAV’s, and vehicles, or by researchers who are now trying to scale the technology up to eliminate the need for overhead or underground electrical transmission cables, as well as open the door to beaming solar energy captured in space back down to ground stations on Earth. In the future this technology will be used to transmit large quantities of energy to various terrestrial and non- terrestrial based assets and locations. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Aerospace, Defence, Energy and Transportation sectors, with support from government funding and university grants. In time we will see the technology mature and become commercially viable at scale, but it will likely face adoption challenges as people question its safety as it scales up. While Microwave Energy Transmission systems are in the Productisation Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Metamaterials and Optics, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 6 6 7 9 7 3 9 1962 1976 1989 2008 2038 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: NONE MICROWAVE ENERGY TRANSMISSION EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 279311institute.com MRLNext >