< Previous7 /9 3 /10 8 TRL /9 B EHAVIOUR BASED SECURITY, which is in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing security systems that are able to authenticate users, whether they be human or machine, based on their behaviours. Recently there have been a number of developments in the field, which is increasingly reliant on Information in Depth, as companies become increasingly adept at capturing, aggregating and then analysing users offline and online cues, which multiply by the day, and that include everything from traditional cues such as location, and application and typing behaviours, all the way through to the use of Quantified Self data that’s available via wearables. DEFINITION Behaviour Based Security uses increasingly complex inputs to determine the level of trust that can be attributed to a user for authentication purposes. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Behaviour Based Security to protect a wide range of critical systems across multiple sectors, and it is quickly becoming one of the defacto ways to authenticate users. In the future the primary use case for the technology will still be for authentication purposes. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Defense and Technology sectors, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the way we authenticate users based on their behaviours evolve dramatically as every aspect of an individuals real world and online world cues are increasingly capable of being captured, aggregated and analysed. While Behaviour Based Security is in the Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Biometrics, Federated Artificial Intelligence, Machine Vision, Natural Language Processing, Neural Interfaces, and Sensor Technology, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 8 8 5 9 9 8 4 9 1992 1994 2002 2010 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT BEHAVIOUR BASED SECURITY STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 410311institute.com MRL3 /9 4 /10 5 TRL /9 B INARY VISUALISATION, which is in the early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Vision to visualise computer code in image form so that it can be determined whether or not it is malicious. Although a nascent technology recent results and the technology’s ability to accurately detect, flag, and visualise, malicious code and fake phishing websites has been staggering making this a technology to watch, especially as the AI models underpinning it mature and get better with training. DEFINITION Binary Visualisation is the use of Machine Vision to visualise binaries and code in order to detect malicious cyber threats. EXAMPLE USE CASES At the moment the number of examples of this technology being used are fairly limited but in every case it’s been shown to significantly outperform all other malicious file and website detection systems by many orders of magnitude. By visualising the code of files and fake phishing websites in image form this technology has so far managed to detect every malicious application files and fake websites with startling accuracy, and as continuous training improves its performance it will only get more capable and sophisticated. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, but from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the defense and technology sector, with support from government funding and university grants. In time we will see Binary Visualisation likely prove itself as a valuable and interesting tool in helping detect and counter cyber threats especially as it is a difficult countermeasure for cyber criminals to counter. While Binary Visualisation is in the early Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Machine Vision, and Robo-Hackers, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, and re-visit it every few years until progress in this space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 4 5 2 8 9 3 3 9 2008 2014 2022 2028 2034 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT BINARY VISUALISATION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 411311institute.com EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. MRL9 /9 9 /10 9 TRL /9 B IOMETRICS, which are in the Mass Adoption Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to use users unique biometric signatures, whether those are cognitive or physical, to assess and authenticate users. Recently there have been multiple breakthroughs in the field, and a surge of investment and interest, the majority of which, has potential dystopian overtones. Breakthroughs include the use of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Vision to not just assess users according to their health and heart rate, but also based on these machine’s ability to assess their character, personality, and tendencies to criminality from stills and video. In addition to this, it has also recently been proven that human brainwaves are unique, and as the technology to capture and analyse brain waves accelerates it will be inevitable that these too will one day be integrated into the Biometrics stack. DEFINITION Biometrics is a collection of technologies that measure and analyse Human physiological and psychological characteristics for authentication purposes. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Biometrics in a wide variety of applications, including within consumer technology, such as smartphones, and elsewhere in border control, and many other places besides. In the future the primary applications of the technology will be, as it is today, to authenticate users and assess their character and characteristics. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the technology evolve to such a point that it will be able to accurately analyse and catalogue users based on their all their cognitive and physical attributes, and regulators will find it an increasingly complex field to navigate. While Biometrics are in the Mass Adoption Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Behaviour Based Security, Machine Vision, Neural Interfaces, and Sensor Technology, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 9 8 5 9 8 9 5 9 1972 1986 1992 1994 2023 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19 BIOMETRICS EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 412311institute.com MRL5 /9 9 /10 8 TRL /9 C ONSTITUTIONAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, which is in the Commercialisation Stage, is the practise of building AI’s that have an internal moral compass to guide their behaviours, decision making, and outputs. A more robust approach to the concept of building guardrails into AI models, which largely rely on “IF” functions being put into the models to control and direct their outputs, Constitutional AI is the attempt to replicate the human moral compass and create an internalised code of conduct in an AI model so that the AI itself is able to understand whether something, whether it is a piece of data or a request, is ethically and morally acceptable or not. While most foundational AI models take a guardrail approach there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that Constitutional AI, which is used by companies such as Anthropic, creates more ethical AI’s that are safer to use and which require less censoring, correcting, and re-training. DEFINITION Constitutional Artificial Intelligence is a form of AI that has a set of built in guidelines which give the AI a moral compass designed to prevent unsavoury behaviours. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today companies like Anthropic are using Constitutional AI to develop Large Language Model AI’s that have a sense of moral right and wrong and which generate results that align with societal ethical and moral behaviours. Not only are these traits desirable but it also means that these AI’s are less likely to be adversarially corruptible, as well as less likely to generate unethical and immoral content and outputs, which makes them better AI candidates to be used in the defense, financial services, healthcare, media, and technology industries, as well as others, where these traits are important and or required. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in Constitutional AI will continue to accelerate and increase and investment will grow, primarily led by organisations in the Defense, Healthcare, and Technology sectors, as AI researchers need to find new ways to constrain the behaviours of their models and assure users that their AI’s are safe and secure to use. While Constitutional AI is still in the Commercialisation Stage it could be enhanced by advances in Artificial General Intelligence, and other technologies, however over the long term it could be replaced by an AI Agent System of Systems model which could be harder to manage. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, and establish a point of view. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 4 7 6 8 9 8 2 8 2009 2017 2022 2023 2034 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT CONSTITUTIONAL AI STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 413311institute.com MRL1 /9 5 /10 4 TRL /9 C ONTAINMENT ALGORITHMS, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to develop a new class of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms that are able to identify rogue AI’s and AI’s who exceed the boundaries of their “programming,” and then either contain their behaviour and keep it within acceptable parameters, or terminate them. Recent research in the field has been slow, especially given the breakneck speed of general AI development, but nonetheless researchers have managed to create experimental Containment Algorithms, based on reinforcement learning principles, which have shown short term promise. Given the nature of AI, including AGI and ASI, though developing a universal general purpose Containment Algorithm system could very well be nigh on impossible, furthermore it is likely that AI itself will eventually be conscripted to help design and build them. DEFINITION Containment Algorithms are a technology that can prevent an Artificial Intelligence from exceeding specific limits and, or terminate it. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today researchers are using Containment Algorithms to try and terminate rogue AI’s and prevent them from exceeding their programming. In the future researchers believe that the technology will play a central role in helping humanity maintain some level of semi or fully autonomous control over the AI’s we embed throughout our Algorithmic Society, and ultimately be of use when it comes to ensuring that AI’s don’t fulfil the prophecy of destroying all Mankind. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector. In time we will see Containment Algorithms be embedded into the majority of AI models and constructs, but regulators will naturally have concerns, and given the fact that AI’s are already capable of self-designing, evolving, and replicating, it is difficult to see how this “war” will ever be won. While Containment Algorithms are in the Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Compute, Intelligence, and Sensor technology, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 3 2 4 9 3 2 8 1967 1981 2016 2032 2045 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 CONTAINMENT ALGORITHMS EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 414311institute.com MRL1 /9 4 /10 2 TRL /9 C YBER-BIOSECURITY, which is in the Concept Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to prevent the exploitation, modification, or theft of both digital and physical biological and or genetic material and processes. As the amount of interest in the field continues to increase, on the one hand because more biological databases are going online, and on the other because increasingly we see new ways of merging digital and biological analogues together to form conjoined and hybrid networks and computing architectures, as well as see the emergence of increasingly sophisticated Brain Machine Interface technologies, or “Neural Hacks,” it is imperative that individuals and organisations have a way to defend themselves from this new style of attack. DEFINITION Cyber-Biosecurity is an analogous term that refers to the protection of biological systems from cyber or digital based attack vectors. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today most Cyber-Biosecurity systems are limited to protecting digital assets containing sensitive biological and or genetic information. In the future the primary use cases for this technology, whose definition and scope will broaden over time as the overall market and threat landscapes evolve, will be to protect both digital and physical biological and genetic assets from harm. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the Aerospace and Defence, Government, Healthcare and Technology sectors, with support from univesity grants. In time we will see this technology play a pivotal role inprotecting people’s biology and minds from being hacked, but it will be a long time before we see it being commercialised. While Cyber-Biosecurity is in the Concept Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Anti-CRISPR Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Brain Machine Interfaces, CAST, CRISPR, Gene Drives, Gene Editing, Neuro-Prosthetics, Neuromorphic Computing, and Synthetic Biology, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, and establish a point of view, and re-visit it once a year until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 2 2 8 1 1 8 1992 1996 2025 2031 2037 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT CYBER-BIOSECURITY STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20, ‘21 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 415311institute.com MRL4 /9 3 /10 5 TRL /9 D ATA TELEPORTATION, which is in the Prototype Stage, is where quantum information, via the process of quantum entanglement, is literally teleported from one place to another without the need for that information to travel across intermediary computer networks which, as the technology develops could end up being a much more affordable, efficient, and safer way to transfer classified and non-classified data. Over the past couple of years the development of this technology has been slow, primarily due to its inherent complexity, and the data transfer rates have been nothing to shout home about, but researchers have now proven several times that it’s not only possible to transmit data in this manner, but that it’s also reliable and replicable. DEFINITION Data Teleportation is the transfer of quantum information from one location to another instantly without the need for intermediary networks using the phenomenon of quantum entanglement. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Data Teleportation to transmit small volumes of non-classified data between points such as E-Mails and unstructured files, however as the technology develops there is no reason why in time all data could not be transmitted this way. And if this happens then computing, computer infrastructure, computer security, and how we communicate and collaborate could change forever. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in Data Teleportation will continue to accelerate and investment will continue to grow, primarily led by organisations in the Defense and Financial Services sectors. As the technology matures data transmission distance, reliability, and speeds will all improve and when combined with other quantum technologies we could see it ramp up quite quickly, albeit that it will initially be constrained to quite specific geographies, industries, and use cases. While Data Teleportation is still in the Prototype Stage it could be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Materials, Quantum Computing, Quantum Internet, and other technologies, and over the long term it could be replaced by Nil Communication. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, and establish a point of view. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 1 7 8 1 1 7 1980 2001 2024 2039 2062 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT DATA TELEPORTATION STARBURST APPEARANCES: NONE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 416311institute.com MRL2 /9 4 /10 4 TRL /9 D NA ENCRYPTION, which is in the early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new encryption and security technologies that keep people’s genetic information safe from prying eyes and misuse. Recently there have been a couple of breakthroughs in the space, including the ability to encrypt individual sequences within a users genome using Yao’s Protocol so that those individual sequences remain cloaked from anyone who doesn’t have the key, and as users are increasingly asked to provide DNA samples, for example by ancestry, healthcare and insurance organisations, being able to protect it becomes increasingly important. DEFINITION DNA Encryption is the process of encrypting genetic information using computational methods in order to improve genetic privacy. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the early prototype DNA Encryption products are being used to test the researchers theories and approaches, and refine the technology. In the future the primary application of the technology will be, as it is today, to allow users to protect their genetic information from misues and prying eyes. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a low base, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector, with support from university grants. In time we will see the use of this particular technology increase as more users get used to the idea of sharing their genetic information, especially with healthcare organisations, so they can receive better treatment. While DNA Encryption is in the early Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Compute Technology, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, establish a point of view, and re- visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 3 3 7 8 3 2 8 1981 2016 2017 2026 2038 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT DNA ENCRYPTION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘18, ‘19 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 417311institute.com MRL3 /9 6 /10 5 TRL /9 H ACKPROOF CODE, which is in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new programming methods that make it impossible for systems to be hacked. As improbable as that might sound recent breakthroughs include the development of new mathematical based programming models that, when put through their paces, made it impossible for the world’s best white hat hackers to break into the prototype military systems. DEFINITION Hackproof Code uses mathematical proof to build software systems that cannot be hacked using any conventional means. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first prototype Hackproof Code platforms are being put through their paces as researchers try to establish the viability of the technology and their refine their methodologies. In the future the primary applications of the technology would be almost limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow albeit from a low base, primarily led with support from government funding. In time we will inevitably see a wide range of approaches tried and tested, and cynics would say broken, so only time will tell whether or not the researchers are onto something. While Hackproof Code is in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, and Creative Machines, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, establish a point of view, and re- visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 2 7 9 2 2 8 1983 2012 2015 2027 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 HACKPROOF CODE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 418311institute.com MRL9 /9 2 /10 9 TRL /9 H OMOMORPHIC ENCRYPTION, which is in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing ways to securely encrypt information in a way that still allows third parties to analyse it without having to give them the encryption keys. Recent breakthroughs in the field include the ability to speed up the encryption process by upto 70 percent which makes the technology an increasingly viable option for companies wishing to leverage it to their advantage. DEFINITION Homomorphic Encryption is a method of performing calculations and analysis on encrypted information without decrypting it first. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Homomorphic Encryption to give crowdsourced data scientists access to confidential financial data so they can mine it for patterns and identify investment opportunities and trends in a way that wouldn’t have been possible using traditional encryption technologies. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector. While the technology has been around for some time now there are still a large number of organisations that see its potential and are eager to develop it to a point where it can be used at the hyperscale, but the narrowness of the research means that progress is not as swift as it could be, and that will affect the long term viability of the technology. While Homomorphic Encryption is in the Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Computing, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 6 5 8 8 3 2 8 1976 1978 1999 2005 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT HOMOMORPHIC ENCRYPTION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20, ‘21, ‘22 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 419311institute.com MRLNext >