< Previousbeast of an animal when it comes to trying to get anything done - no matter how honourable your intentions or senior your position. It’s no secret that not only do governments often adapt and evolve at a substantially slower rate than their private sector counterparts but that they also have to balance all manner of internal and external expectations and pressures, many of which are unique to their sector, in order to move the dial even a little bit. However, as difficult a task as overcoming these challenges is there are plenty of examples of governments, from China and the UAE to Singapore and the UK, who’ve managed to successfully navigate them and move from the old to the new. Budgets and Public Funding Budgets are far too often the limiting factor when it comes to trying to do new things but they’ve been a fact of life for millennia and as any entrepreneur will tell you there are a multitude of different ways we can achieve the seemingly impossible without having to “bust the bank.” Or in some cases even go to the bank in the first place. That said though while governments are limited in just how “entrepreneurial” they can be with their thinking one of the greatest challenges governments face is that when it comes to investing in projects that yield returns in the future the fact of the matter is that all too often both politicians and the public have expectations that money spent today has an impact in the shorter term rather than the longer term. While this attitude has its merits and is understandable it’s short sighted. It also means that when the future does eventually arrive the countries with this attitude find themselves unprepared and cultural, industrial, and societal dislocation and disruption occur, with both politicians and the public alike then blaming the previous generations and incumbents for the mess they find themselves in. You can taste the irony. Solutions to this challenge rely on having strong leaders, with clearly defined aspirations, goals, and plans that can be clearly communicated and articulated to both the public and other politicians alike. Fail to provide any of these and not only will it be difficult to gain people’s support and sponsorship to invest in the future, but it will also likely lead to the failure of Notes: 30311institute.comyour future focused projects. Bureaucracy While bureaucracy and red tape have always been great barriers to change, and despite the fact we have new tools to help us cut through them, today against the backdrop of an increasingly polarised society we’re seeing an more governments around the world becoming increasingly deadlocked and paralysed as more politicians fail to find a common middle ground or come to common agreement - as well as in some cases proactively and passionately attempting to derail and block new policies. Ultimately, the impact of these trends and behaviours is a lack of consensus, endless debate, and little or no positive action. While there are no easy fixes to the trend of fragile government, which is the official name of this emerging trend, when it comes to cutting through bureaucratic red tape the global Covid-19 pandemic showed governments that when faced with a crisis that created a united atmosphere of immediacy and urgency they were able to rise to the occasion, spin on a literal dime, and accomplish things over night that would have normally taken them years or in some cases even decades. As the saying goes: never let a good crisis go to waste. As devastating as it was the global pandemic showed governments that it was possible to not just cut through red tape but in many cases eliminate it altogether. As a consequence, it’s vital that you understand, catalogue, and detail the changes your government made during those times, at every level of government and across every ministry and department - the results of which you can then discuss, learn from, and most importantly codify into your organisations cultural and operational models. Elections and Election Cycles Perhaps one of the greatest challenges that public officials are confronted with when trying to develop and progress their long term innovation strategies and visions are their country’s election cycles which at a national level are often every four to five years, and which at a local level can be annually. Needless to say this system neither favours nor promotes long term thinking or planning. Planning and preparing for the future requires governments take a short, medium, and long term view and develop Notes: 31311institute.comvisions and strategies that align with those views. But, when your feasibility to be elected depends on the impact you have on your electorate in the short term it’s all too easy for governments and politicians alike to focus on the short term at the expense of the long term. Suffice to say the evidence of the impact of this thinking can be seen everywhere, from the buckling education and healthcare systems to infrastructure investments and beyond. Additionally though, this situation is further compounded by the fact that when governments and politicians are voted out or end their terms - a “changing of the pilot in the aircraft” if you will - there’s no guarantee their replacements will share or support the strategies or visions they’ve worked so hard to develop and implement. Making the situation even more dire is the fact that in some cases these replacements might even have diametrically opposed views and, in the most extreme cases, unwind all their predecessors policies and work just as we saw with President Trump when he not only took a hatchet to President Obama’s climate, environmental, healthcare, and science strategies but also pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement and walked back almost all of the Obama administrations progressive Environmental Protection Agency’s policies. In this particular case it can be said that the US lost almost a decades worth of progress at the same time that their competitors, for example China, made twelve years of progress. The net result of this being that President Trumps actions in some cases put the US decades behind their more progressive counterparts and at its most basic level allowed China not only to catch up with the US in some areas but actually over take them. Unfortunately, as you might expect, trying to overcome this challenge is neither simple nor straight forward. Ironically, one solution, which I’ll table here because it’s applicable and has shown to be effective comes from more authoritarian and conservatively authoritarian states such as China, Russia, Singapore, and the UAE where some leaders have the privilege of ruling for life. While some people may take umbrage at this “model” one of the principle benefits of this approach is that countries have one strong central figure who can ensure that the country’s vision is delivered in line with expectations and against plan - irrespective of any changes that might Notes: 32311institute.comtake place within the government or legislative bodies themselves. In short, using our aircraft analogy this is the equivalent of keeping the same pilot for the entire flight while the co-pilots and crew are swapped in and out. For obvious reasons though this solution isn’t applicable to that many countries which is where we then discuss the importance of common goals and shared values between political parties, and the role of the private sector - the latter of which is also increasingly becoming government’s own co-pilot when it comes to helping them architect and deliver meaningful future focused programs on the ground. Prime examples of this include the private sectors prominent role in helping governments achieve Net Zero, as well as it taking the lead in the development of new education and skills programs, aerospace, communications, defence, energy, manufacturing, space, technology, and transportation programs, and much more. This then also naturally leads into conversations about the role of Public-Private Partnerships (P3), as well as which is the more effective when it comes to helping countries architect and create the future ... GROWTH BY ANOTHER NAME Of course, while governments face all these challenges, when compared to the private sector they also have a very different growth agenda. Whereas private organisations are driven almost exclusively by dividends and profits, governments are driven by entirely different metrics which include growing GDP and output, which are ostensibly their versions of revenue, and sustainably growing tax receipts in a way that doesn’t harm either of these objectives or their future aspirations. Notes: 33311institute.comTHE HIVE Transforming a country and its culture so that it is ready and primed to have a leadership position and prosper in the future requires a comprehensive approach. By using our established model countless countries around the world have been successful in realising their futures ambitions. 1. THE HIVE Your dedicated government futures agency, your EDA, responsible for developing, executing, and owning your country’s future vision with its partners. Led by trustees it co-ordinates and interfaces with internal and external public and private sector stakeholders. 2. SECTORS OF INTEREST As members of the Hive each sector, or community, interacts with Hive partners and the broader ecosystem to build and create its own future. 3. GOVERNMENT Government stakeholders and institutions, including policy makers and regulators, directly engage and work with and alongside members of the Hive and its communities to help them achieve their joint goals. 1 2 3Not only does this approach institutionalise agility, foresight, imagination, and risk taking within government but it also institutionalises futures thinking within your country’s culture and minimises your likelihood of failure. Additionally, in time this EDA will become your country’s global platform responsible for leading research efforts, spreading knowledge, and playing the key role as a country wide and global accelerator and think tank that delivers against your governments future ambitions and aspirations. In short it is the embodiment of all things future related and futures thinking, and will become the vehicle for government and societal level change. A HIVE SPACE Once your EDA has been established next it needs a prominent physical manifestation - a hive-like space that encourages occupants to interact, learn from one another, and work closely together to explore the unexplored. Home to a complete futures ecosystem, including business functions, investors, mentors, regulators, and thought leaders, this space needs to be designed to encourage people to come together to co-create and co-design the future, embrace disruptive ideas, let them take risks, and think entrepreneurially. It should also bring together the brightest minds from across government and the private sector and startups from around the world who can bring to life the ideas that will transform your future. Furthermore, just as importantly, it shouldn’t just cater to or pander to established organisations or the status quo from the government and private sectors. It should be a destination for anyone and everyone who has bold new ideas irrespective of their abilities or backgrounds including academics, entrepreneurs, forward thinkers, students, and visionaries alike, who can all use it as a platform to collaborate and experiment with one another. With plenty of room and facilities the A LL THESE challenges and expectations then beg the question: How do you get from where you are today to where you want to be tomorrow? Fortunately, there is a solution that can be deployed quickly, scaled quickly, and that can generate results quickly for everyone involved. So let’s dig into it. BUILDING FUTURES FOUNDATIONS Your journey starts by auditing and cataloguing all the direct and indirect assets and resources you have available to you. Then next creating a dedicated government futures agency, an Economic Development Agency (EDA) led by a board of trustees which includes government ministers, stakeholders, and carefully selected private individuals whose purpose it is to architect, imagine, own, publicise, and execute your country’s strategic vision, and develop its strategic sectors over the medium and long term in partnership with academia, government, investors, and the private sector. ACCELERATING FUTURES INNOVATION. 35311institute.comdesign of the space should facilitate and nourish a wide variety of experiences, from common resources and private workspaces, to shared inspirational activities, programs, and even event spaces. A LOT TO CONSIDER There is nothing easy about transforming a country and its culture so that it is future ready and primed to become a future leader, which is why everything you do must be done with the utmost care and attention to detail and, ironically, always done with the customer experience and simplicity in mind. This is also the prime reason why you should begin your journey with your stakeholders and their journey at the forefront of your mind. Unsurprisingly when it comes to building centers of excellence like the one we’re discussing there’s a lengthy to do list, but some of the things you should prioritise include ensuring that business licenses and visas are easily accessible, as is affordable access to business support, housing, resources, and workspaces, and that members have the access they need to vital innovation, mentoring, and market briefing sessions. But that’s obviously not all, not by a long shot. You should also ensure that members are captivated by the overall experience and find themselves immersed and inspired by visions of the future and futures thinking, and they should all have quick access to the community’s ecosystem and stakeholders, including executives, experts, investors, and of course regulators. All of which is merely the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Notes: 36311institute.comMATTHEW GRIFFIN 311INSTITUTE.com “ INNOVATION IS THE ABILITY TO SEE CHANGE AS AN OPPORTUNITY NOT AS A THREAT . ” - Steve Jobs, AppleCHINA CAPTURES THE VALUE CHAINT HE REMAKING of the world order, as we transition from a US led world to a Multi-Polar one, led first by China and then perhaps by India as we near the year 2050, is the driving force behind increasing levels of ambition and hostility between various countries - especially China and the US today as both countries vie for global dominance, with the US trying to hang on to it and China trying to attain and secure it. And, to help China realise this goal Chinese companies and the Chinese government want to capture as much of the Global Value Chain (GVC) as possible. CHINA 2.0 WANTS IT ALL Traditionally seen as the world’s factory China is no longer content with being a bit player low down in the chain, capturing cents on the dollar while American companies especially, such as Apple, Boeing, and Nike, capture the lions share of the value from the products that Chinese companies manufacture - in whole or in part - on their behalf. As a result they are determined to capture as much value as they can by controlling as much of the design, distribution, IP, marketing, production, and support activities as they can to create unassailable global super brands. THE GLOVES ARE OFF Angered by heavy US export restrictions which affected the export of advanced computer chips to China, sanctions against Chinese companies which cut them out of important markets, and with tariff whipsawing affecting huge swathes of the Chinese economy, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Chinese government is doubling down on the strategy to dethrone US brands, its economy, influence, and much more. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BRANDS Ultimately, this means that there is a new, huge, and highly capable player in town with ambition, capital, and resources that are arguably unmatched, which means that companies everywhere should take note and develop plans to safeguard their market share while also pursuing opportunities for market expansion. You should be on the look out for new Chinese marketing behaviours, learn how Chinese companies develop IP and products, how they are using social media and algorithms to great effect, and should run Red Team reviews to understand how your brand can be disrupted and torn down. 39311institute.comNext >