< Previous1947 BELL LABS 1 3 Inches - - Transistor Count : Transistor Size : Speed : Original Cost / Adjusted * : 1971 INTEL 4004 2,300 10,000 Nm 0.00074 Ghz $1 / $13 2018 INTEL CORE I9 7 Billion 14 Nm 4.80 Ghz $0.00000024 CHANGE AFTER 71 YEARS ** 7,000,000,000 x Increase 5,442,857 x Smaller 6,486 x Faster 4,166,666 x Cheaper * Modern Day Price Equivalent (MDPE) adjusted for inflation, UK BOE Data, and cost per transistor ** Calculated for years with data and calculated using MDPE INTEGRATED CURCUIT TRENDS OVER TIME IN TIME MOST TECHNOLOGIES MINIATURISE AND THEIR COST-PERFORMANCE IMPROVES EXPONENTIALLY ...2018 INTEL CORE I9 7 Billion 14 Nm 4.80 Ghz $0.00000024 2025 + MIT ? 1 Nm Est. 48Ghz + ? 2025 + KARLSRRUHE INSTITUTE ? 0 Nm * ? ? CHANGE ** REMEMBER THEY’RE DECEPTIVE - Infinite x Smaller 10 x Faster - * Photons effectively have zero size ** Comparing largest and smallest numbers against Intel Core i9 SILICONNANOTUBESPHOTONIC JUMPING THE S-CURVE ... BUT WHEN THOSE GAINS DO EVENTUALLY START TO SLOW WE THEN JUMP THE “S-CURVE” TO A NEW TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY AND THE RATE OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT STARTS ALL OVER AGAIN.1956 IBM 350 HARD DRIVE 5 Mb 970 Kgs $120,000 / $4.1 Million $820 Million Storage Capacity : Size : Original Cost / Adjusted * : Price per Gb * : 1990 MAXTOR 7000 HARD DRIVE 40 Mb 1.3 Kgs $360 / $824 $20,600 2019 WD ULTRASTAR DC 20 Tb 0.6 Kgs $1,100 $0.055 CHANGE AFTER 63 YEARS ** 4,000,000 x Increase 1,616 x Smaller - 14,909,090,909 x Cheaper * Modern Day Price Equivalent (MDPE) adjusted for inflation, UK BOE Data ** Calculated for years with data and calculated using MDPE STORAGE TRENDS OVER TIME IN TIME MOST TECHNOLOGIES MINIATURISE AND THEIR COST-PERFORMANCE IMPROVES EXPONENTIALLY ...2019 WD ULTRASTAR DC 20 Tb 0.6 Kgs $1,100 $0.055 2019 SANDISK FLASH MICRO SD 1 Tb 25 Grams $250 $0.25 2025 + SYNTHETIC DNA STORAGE 526 Pb 1 Gram $1 Million $115 CHANGE * REMEMBER THEY’RE DECEPTIVE 26,300 X Increase 600 x Smaller - 2,090 x More Expensive * Comparing largest and smallest numbers against WD Ultrastar DC HARD DRIVE FLASHDNA JUMPING THE S-CURVE ... BUT WHEN THOSE GAINS DO EVENTUALLY START TO SLOW WE THEN JUMP THE “S-CURVE” TO A NEW TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY AND THE RATE OF EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT STARTS ALL OVER AGAIN.READINESS LEVELSW ITH SO many different exponential technologies already here and with many more emerging it can often be a difficult task to figure out which of them are mature enough to be used to build your organisations next generation of products and services - let alone future generations. However, as I have discussed many times throughout this codex, and at its most basic level, when it comes to envisioning the future and deep future stakeholders care about the “What,” the “How,” and the “When.” Identifying the problems, and the technologies we can use to solve those problems, is the classic innovation and product development problem and is the What [the future looks like] and the How [we do it]. Technology readiness levels in the meanwhile help us in part at least - along with the other factors I mentioned in the Building Exponential Enterprises section - with the When. However, just to be clear at this point it’s also worth pointing out that there are three types of When we care about. The first is “When will different technologies be mature enough for us to use to create our future products and services?” the second is “When will we be able to manufacture those new products?” and the third is “When will we be able to sell those products to customers [and how fast will they adopt them]?” Technology readiness levels help us answer the first two questions. And as for answering the third that’s reliant on all the different factors highlighted on the Exponential Adoption segment of the Disruption Triangle aligning - as highlighted in the Building Exponential Enterprises section - which includes factors such as your new products accessibility, affordability, desirability, reliability, and supportability, as well as other factors including customer culture, liability, the regulatory environment, and many others. So, as you can see while technology readiness levels aren’t the whole answer to the What, How, and When, they do play a crucial role in helping you develop, manufacture, and commercialise your future products, as well as plan your future roadmaps and strategy. 105311institute.comTECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL CHART Technology Readiness Levels are a type of universal measurement system that are used to assess the maturity level of a particular technology and its fitness to be used in particular use cases or environments. 9 Actual system proven in operational environment 8 System complete and qualified 7 System prototype demonstrated in operational environment 6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment 5 Technology validated in relevant environment 4 Technology validated in lab 3 Experimental proof of concept 2 Technology concept formulated 1Basic principles observed DEPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT RESEARCHObviously though TRL 2 technology is very speculative as there is little to no experimental proof of concept for the technology. When active research and design begin the technology is elevated to TRL 3. Generally both analytical and laboratory studies are required at this level to see if a technology is viable and ready to proceed further through the development process, and it’s often during this stage when a proof of concept model is constructed. Once the proof of concept technology is ready it then advances to TRL 4 where all of its individual component pieces are tested with one another. TRL 5 is a continuation of TRL 4, however, a technology that is at 5 is identified as what’s often referred to as a breadboard technology and must undergo more rigorous testing than technology that is only at TRL 4. Simulations should be run in environments that are as close to realistic as possible. Once the testing of TRL 5 is complete, a technology may advance to TRL 6. A TRL 6 technology has a fully functional prototype or representational model. TRL 7 technology then requires that the working model or prototype be demonstrated in a relevant environment that closely mirrors its final environment, or use case. TRL 8 technology has been tested and qualified and it’s ready for implementation into an already existing technology or technology system. And, now that the technology has been successfully proven it can be elevated to TRL 9, after which it can then be developed further, commercialised, and manufactured. ONTO THE NEXT STAGE It is at this is the point at which our next technology readiness level, the so called Manufacturing Readiness Level (MRL), comes into play, and I discuss that on the next page. TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL . TRL . T HE TECHNOLOGY Readiness Level (TRL) system is a universal measurement system that’s used to assess the maturity level of individual technologies and their fitness to be used in particular use cases, products, or environments. First developed by NASA and adopted by organisations all around the world each technology development project that an organisation undertakes can be evaluated against specific parameters and assigned an appropriate TRL rating. Overall, as you can see from the chart opposite, there are nine technology readiness levels with TRL 1 being the lowest and TRL 9 being the highest. THE DIFFERENT LEVELS When a technology is at TRL 1 scientific research is beginning and those results are being translated into future research and development. TRL 2 occurs once the basic principles of that technology have been studied and practical applications can be applied to those initial findings. 107311institute.comMANUFACTURING READINESS LEVEL CHART Manufacturing Readiness Levels are a type of universal measurement system that are used to assess the maturity of manufacturing readiness for a particular product, and they are similar to how Technology Readiness Levels are used to assess technology readiness. 9 Full production metrics achieved 8 Full production process qualified for full range of components 7 Capability and rate confirmed 6 Process optimised for production rate on production equipment 5 Basic capability demonstrated 4 Production validated in lab environment 3 Experimental proof of concept completed 2 Application and validity of concept validated or demonstrated 1Concept proposed with scientific validation PHASE 3 Product Implementation PHASE 2 Pre Production PHASE 1 Technology ProvingMANUFACTURING READINESS LEVEL . MRL . T HE MANUFACTURING Readiness Level (MRL) is a universal measurement system that organisations can use to assess the maturity, or “Manufacturing Readiness,” for new product concepts, and it’s similar to how Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) are used to assess the maturity and readiness of individual technologies. As a result MRL’s are often used in general industry assessments, for example when organisations are looking to manufacture new products and new manufacturing processes, or for more specific applications such as assessing the capabilities and manufacturing maturity of potential suppliers. Used by organisations all around the world at a high level each new manufacturing project can be evaluated and be assigned a MRL rating based on the projects progress. Overall, as you can see from the chart opposite, there are nine MRL levels with MRL 1 being the lowest, and MRL 9 being the highest. 109311institute.comNext >