< Previous8 /9 3 /10 8 TRL /9 E ARABLE COMPUTING, which is in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new types of computing and electronics platforms that fit inside, or rest alongside, the human ear. Recently there have been a number of developments in the field which include the development of new healthcare focused in the ear wearables, as well as Neuro-Modulating earbuds which let people learn new skills in new ways. Also, as technology continues to miniaturise and improve in capability and performance Earable Computing could become an increasingly interesting field especially when you realise that as wireless Non-Invasive Brain Machine Interfaces (NIBMI), which will soon allow people to communicate telepathically with one another as well as enable people to “telepathically” beam images directly to peoples brains, thus bypassing the eyes, continues to miniaturise this could make the ideal platform to replace the ubiquitous smartphone whose only issue leaping to “what comes next” is the display. DEFINITION Earable Computing is an ear worn technology that includes a variety of compute and compute-like components. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we have Neuro-Modulating earbuds that can be used to accelerate Neuro-Training. We also have earbuds that can sense their heartbeats from the blood vessels in the ear, and we have NIBMI which can be embedded into Smart Tattoos and Smart Glasses to enable wireless Brain to Brain and Brain to Machine communication as well as eventually AI Symbiosis. By combining these tecnologies together, which would let machines send imagery and information telepathically to peoples brains, thus bypassing the eyes, in the long term the technology has a shot being the next Smartphone format. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, primarily led by organisations in the Consumer Electronics and Technology sector, with support from university grants. In time we will see the technology mature to the point where we are able to realise new opportunities. While Earable Computing is in the prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Brain Machine Interfaces, as well as Compute, Electronics, and Sensor technologies, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 5 6 7 6 5 3 3 9 1998 2004 2012 2025 2038 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘21 EARABLE COMPUTING EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 190311institute.com MRL9 /9 3 /10 9 TRL /9 E DGE COMPUTING, which is in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with finding new ways to bring compute, intelligence, and storage, closer to data sources at the edges of the network so that they can be analysed and actioned without first having to be sent back to central datacenters to be processed. While this technology goes hand in hand, somewhat, with the Internet of Things trend as well as other technologies and trends, today the continued miniaturisation of AI neural networks, compute components, and their associated dramatic increases in performance mean that this technology is becoming increasingly powerful and impactful. DEFINITION Edge Computing is the practise of capturing, storing, and analysing data near where the data is generated. EXAMPLE USE CASES While many people might think small when they think of this technology, such as the use of edge computing and sensor fusion technologies to create more intelligent Internet of Things networks and systems, such as those used in Precision Agriculture, Smart Cities, Smart Grids, or Smart Homes, today Autonomous Vehicles are also another good example of this technology in action, and so too is Predictive Maintenance and wearable technology’s quantified self use case. And there are many other examples. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the technology sector. In time we will see Edge Computing become ubiquitous and be the defacto way that rapid decision making at the edge is done. While Edge Computing is in the Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Communications, Computing, and many other complimentary technology fields, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 7 7 5 9 9 7 4 9 1981 1988 1992 2001 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT EDGE COMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘24 191311institute.com EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. MRL8 /9 6 /10 9 TRL /9 E XASCALE COMPUTING, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is still in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, is an increasingly important computing category as sovereign governments see the power of these computing platforms as a competitive national advantage when it comes to the ability to innovate new breakthrough products and solutions in just fractions of the time it would take a traditional large scale computing platform. Exascale Computers are computing platforms packed with state of the art inerconnects, GPU’s and silicon based chips that are capable of performing a Quintillion calculations per second, and they will become increasingly important as governments and organisations want to run increasingly complex experiments and simulations. DEFINITION Exascale Computing refers to computing systems capable of at least one Exaflop, or a Quintillion, calculations per second. EXAMPLE USE CASES When the first Exascale Computing platforms arrive we will be using them to model the whole human brain, not just the 10 percent that we do today, create better climate models and discover new drugs and materials, and much more. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research in the space will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, especially when we begin to see the first platforms coming online. While Exascale computing is still in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, over the long term, and once we have the new programming languages and tools established, they will at first be enhanced by Photonic Computing and Quantum Computing, and eventually replaced by new exotic forms of computing including Biological Computing, Chemical Computing, Molecular Computing, Neuromorphic Computing and, again, Quantum Computing. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 4 5 9 9 7 6 9 1991 1997 2018 2022 2026 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT EXASCALE COMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19, ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 192311institute.com MRL6 /9 8 /10 9 TRL /9 F EDERATED SUPERCOMPUTING, a General Purpose Technology, which is in the early Productisation Stage, is the field of research dedicated to building the computer architectures needed to allow geographically distrubuted computing clusters and platforms to pool their compute, storage, and network resources in order to emulate and exceed the performance and capabilities of traditional supercomputers. Recently there have been several breakthroughs with expanded containerisation options, as well as the deployment of several small scale supercomputing instances which have been combined together to create Federated Supercomputing-as-a-Service (FSaaS). And we are also seeing the first stages of Federated Quantum Computing- as-a-Service (FQCaaS) which could be game changing. DEFINITION Federated Supercomputing is the pooling together of logically distributed computing nodes to create a massive single supercomputing instances. EXAMPLE USE CASES While the largest FS and FQCaaS services don’t yet exceed the capabilities of the world’s largest Exascale supercomputers there is a major overlap between the two when it comes to use cases especially in the fields of AI development, data mining, materials and medical research, supply chains and logistics, and many more. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade we will continue to see interest in this field accelerate, predominantly led by the technology sector and government and military grants. In time this approach could become the dominant deployment model for the supercomputing industry especially as it offers several commercial and sustainability advantages over the mega installations we see with traditional supercompute and Exascale Computing deployments. While it’s unlikely that major compute heavy organisations will ditch their large supercomputer investments though in time this model will be a force to be reckoned with especially when it comes to serving alternative clients who don’t have the capital clout or need to buy dedicated supercompute infrastructure. While Federated Supercomputing is in the early Productisation Stage it could be enhanced by advances in AI, and other technologies, however over the long term it’s unclear what it could be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 8 7 5 9 9 5 3 9 1981 1986 1993 2021 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT FEDERATED SUPERCOMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘23 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 193311institute.com MRL2 /9 6 /10 2 TRL /9 I ONIC COMPUTING, a General Purpose Technology, which is in the very early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to use ionic fluids to create a new brain-like class of liquid or aqueous computers. While ions in water move slower than electrons in semiconductors, scientists think the diversity of ionic species with different physical and chemical properties could be harnessed for richer and more diverse information processing, and while there have been limited breakthroughs in the field recently researchers developed one of the world’s first complete ionic curcuits recently complete with hundreds of ionic transistors. DEFINITION Ionic Computing is the manipulation of ionic fluids to create liquid computing platforms. EXAMPLE USE CASES While the obvious sweet spot for this technology will be any use case where liquid environments and computing needs to overlap it will also open up the possibility of creating liquid computing platforms that can occupy any shape or space. Furthermore, given the technology’s properties it could have interesting implications for the future of computing and datacenter cooling. Primary use cases could include the development of so called “Wet AI” and having a liquid computing platform could also open up interesting biotech and health-tech use cases. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade we will continue to see interest in this field accelerate, albeit from a very low base, predominantly led by government grants. Given the current slow speeds of the technology it will likely take decades before it emerges as a commercially viable technology, but in the shorter term it might be able to find some interesting niche use cases where it excels which would help to fuel its future development. While Ionic Computing is still in the early Prototype Stage it could be enhanced by advances in AI, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Chemistry, Synthetic Molecules, and other technologies, however over the long term it could be superceeded by Biological, Chemical, Liquid, and Molecular Computing platforms. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, establish a point of view, and re- visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 3 7 7 7 3 2 7 1972 1993 2002 2038 2064 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT IONIC COMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 194311institute.com MRL9 /9 5 /10 9 TRL /9 I NTELLIGENCE PROCESSING UNITS, which are still in the early Productisation Stage, are a revolutionary form of Artificial Intelligence computing chip that can handle advanced AI algorithms hundreds of times faster than today’s state of the art CPU and GPU technologies. Unlike these current technologies, that solve problems by collecting blocks of data and then running algorithms and logic operations on it in sequence across banks of parallel processors, IPU’s contain thousands of individual processors that share the processing workloads by leveraging graph computing with a low-precision floating-point computing model that dramatically accelerates the processing of complex machine learning models. DEFINITION Intelligence Processing Units combine graph computing with massively parallel, low-precision floating-point computing to boost workload processing performance by multiples. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Intelligence Processing Units to speed up Artificial Intelligence training by up to 100 fold. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research in the space will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will accelerate at an increasingly rapid rate as the technology becomes productised and accepted by the markets. While Intelligence Processing Units are still in the early Productisation Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by new Artificial Intelligence training methodologies. However, while it is certain that they will one day be replaced, at this moment in time, other than the advent of Artificial Intelligence Zero-Day Learning, it is unclear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 7 5 2 9 8 6 3 9 2010 2014 2015 2017 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT INTELLIGENCE PROCESSING UNITS STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19, ‘20 Graphcore EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 195311institute.com MRL2 /9 9 /10 4 TRL /9 L IQUID COMPUTING, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is still in the Concept Stage and early Prototype Stage, is the creation of new liquid computing platforms that use liquids and 2D materials to process and store information. Today we have already created the world’s first liquid computer chips, logic gates and transistors - all the essential primary components of a traditional computing platform. While there is still a long way to go before we see a fully assembled and fully functional Liquid Computer we are on our way to creating all of the individual components we need to build one, and needless to say when we finally crack the code it means that tomorrow’s computers will look completely alien to us. DEFINITION Liquid Computing uses liquid transistors and other fluidic components to carry out computer-like processing and storage functions. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first Liquid Computer prototypes have been used to test the theory that liquids and 2D materials can be combined together to process and store information. Needless to say though the future use cases for the technology are almost limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research in the field will continue, albeit be constrained to narrow, specialist labs, and interest and investment will grow, again, albeit at a very slow rate at first, with principal funding rounds coming in by way of government and university grants. While Liquid computing is still in the Concept Stage and early Prototype Stage, over the long term it is likely it could be enhanced by Biological Computing, Chemical Computing, and DNA Computing. However, at this moment in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 1 4 3 8 2 1 6 1994 2015 2017 2032 2062 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 LIQUID COMPUTING EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 196311institute.com MRL3 /9 9 /10 7 TRL /9 M ETA COMPUTING, which is in the early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with using virtual gaming and simulation engines to create virtual “Meta” computers within virtual worlds that are capable of independently running their own code and programs independent of those world’s underlying hardware. These computers are literal virtual computers in the truest sense of the word, with only passing resemblances to their real world counterparts, and only exist in virtual worlds completely unconstrained by physical or natural laws. Recent breakthroughs include the development of an 80 storey tall 8-Bit 1Hz meta computer called Chungus in Minecraft made out of Redstone Blocks which is capable of running programs and games. In time these platforms will be capable of continuous self-improvement and could lead to the development of true “Multi-Dimensional” computing systems. DEFINITION Meta Computing is the development of virtual reality like computer systems within virtual worlds. EXAMPLE USE CASES We have all seen the modern world benefit of virtualised computers such as those developed by VMWare, but meta computers which are different, have the potential to change the computing world again. In time, by drawing on Distributed, Edge, and other underlying global computer resources, these systems could have almost infinite amounts of compute running within virtual environments and worlds that are all abstracted away from hardware - the use cases for which are limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, albeit from a very low base, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Meta Computing sector. In time we will see Meta Computing become increasingly popular within virtual environments such as the Metaverse where they will be used for both consumer and enterprise, as well as other Machine 2 Machine (M2M) applications. While Meta Computing is in the early Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Intelligence, Distributed Computing, Edge Computing, Simulation Engines, and other fields, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, and re-visit it every few years until progress in this space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 6 3 7 9 2 1 8 2001 2005 2022 2037 2048 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT META COMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘23, ‘24 197311institute.com EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. MRL3 /9 7 /10 8 TRL /9 M ICROMOTES, which are in the early Productisation Stage, and which some people are trying to rename, incorrectly in my view for now at least, as Smart Dust, is the name given to the range of increasingly tiny fully autonomous computers, packed with sensors, that today are already thousands times smaller than a single grain of rice. As computers and computer components continue to shrink in size it is clear that even these miniature computing platforms, by future standards, will be gigantic, dwarfing their molecular sized future counterparts. DEFINITION Micromotes are the world’s smallest complete computing platforms and are smaller than a grain of rice. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Micromotes to help us track and cryptographically secure global supply chains, and embed compute and intelligence natively into Internet of Things solutions where Micromotes ability to process information in situ at the edge means we no longer have to send as much information back to bloated datacenters. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research in the area will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment in the space will grow. As the individual compute components used to make Micromotes continues to shrink inevitably these tiny computing platforms will first become microscopic, and then molecular in size, with the next generation of Micromotes likely to include the ability to run basic Neural Networks which will allow them to process information at the networks edge and allow the objects they are embedded into behave and react to information and stimuli in new “intelligent” ways. While Micromotes are still in the early Productisation Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by Biological Computing, Chemical Computing, DNA Computing, Flexible Electronics, Smart Materials, and Quantum Sensors, and it is likely that they will be replaced by Molecular Computing. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 7 7 6 8 8 5 3 9 1982 2001 2009 2011 2030 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT MICROMOTES STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22 University of Michigan EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 198311institute.com MRL7 /9 3 /10 9 TRL /9 M INERLESS BLOCKCHAINS, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, are still in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, and are sometimes referred to as Blockchain 3.0. One of the biggest problems highlighted by users and critics alike of traditional Blockchain technology, sometimes referred to as Blockchain 1.0 and 2.0, is its reliance on Blockchain Miners who are responsible for adding transaction records to Blockchain public ledgers, a process that is complicated, expensive, slow, and, more worryingly for many, incredibly energy hungry. Putting this latter point into perspective, if traditional Blockchain technology represented a county it would have the sixth highest energy consumption in the world. As a result a number of suggestions have been put forwards to remedy this problem including verifying transactions by using Proof of Work, and Proof of Stake, but in order to create truly Minerless Blockchains another way of processing transactions, Proof of Authority, has now been developed. DEFINITION Minerless Blockchains use a variety of different mathematical concepts, rather than Blockchain Miners, to validate and process blockchain transactions. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Minerless Blockchains to create decentralised payment networks, and Stable Coins whose values, unlike traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, are tied to fiat currencies, and process decentralised payments. Over the longer term it looks like the use cases that are ripe pickings for Blockchain 1.0 and 2.0 technology will also be applicable to Minerless Blockchains. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research in the space will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate as the technology moves from the early Prototype Stage and into the Production Stage, and throughout that period it is highly likely that the vast majority of Blockchain developments will be iterative, rather than revolutionary. While Minerless Blockchains are in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, over the longer term it is likely that they will be enhanced by Artificial Intelligence, but not replaced. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 7 7 4 8 8 5 3 8 2015 2015 2016 2017 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21 MINERLESS BLOCKCHAINS EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 199311institute.com MRLNext >