< Previous2 /9 6 /10 3 TRL /9 T ERRAFORMING HAS long been a staple of the science fiction community who continually show off its power to transform planets and space stations alike into vibrant, habitable green spaces, but the fact remains that there is little to no need for the technology on Earth. As a consequence, as humanity continues to reach for the stars and looks to build the first human inter-planetary outposts on the Moon and Mars by 2050 it is inevitable that it will become an increasingly important tool to help humans colonise the universe. DEFINITION Terraforming is the transformation of an ecosystem or a planet so that it resembles Earth. EXAMPLE USE CASES While many of the future use cases for the technology are extreme and vary in scale, from the ability to terraform large orbiting cities to being able to transform entire planets today’s uses are limited to small lab scale experiments. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade research institutions will continue to work on developing and experimenting with the technology, and it is inevitable that it will require a “Technology in depth” approach that will include researchers increasingly turning to Synthetic Biology technologies, as well as more boutique technologies such as Magnetic Shields, like the ones NASA are proposing for Mars, that will prevent a planets new atmosphere from being blown away by solar flares and radiation. While Terraforming technology is still very nascent at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION Terraforming is a highly disruptive and potentially very valuable technology but it is still at the concept and prototype stage. As a result, in the medium to long term, I suggest companies put it onto their radars and keep an eye on it. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 5 1942 1979 2035 2045 2054 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT TERRAFORMING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 310311institute.com MRL311311institute.comINTELLIGENCEH UMANS HAVE long thought we’re special because of our superior intelligence, but as we use that intelligence to build new forms of intelligence, whether it’s machine, mechanical, or even new forms of synthetic biological intelligence, our position at the apex of the tree will become increasingly threatened. In this section you will find details of the emerging technologies that made it into this years Griffin Emerging Technology Starburst along with details of other impactful emerging technologies: 1.Analogue Artificial Intelligence 2.Artificial General Intelligence 3.Artificial Narrow Intelligence 4.Artificial Super Intelligence 5.Cognitive Computing 6.Creative Machines 7.Diffractive Neural Networks 8.DNA Neural Networks 9.Evolutionary Artificial Intelligence 10.Explainable Artificial Intelligence 11.Federated Artificial Intelligence 12.Liquid Artificial Intelligence 13.Machine Vision 14.Mechanical Artificial Intelligence 15.Meta Artificial Intelligence 16.Natural Language Processing 17.Open Ended Artificial Intelligence 18.Quantum Artificial Intelligence 19.Quantum Language Processing 20.Shallow Neural Networks 21.Simulation Engines 22.Swarm Artificial Intelligence 23.Synthetic Biological Intelligence In addition to these emerging technologies there are many others that have yet to get an entry in this codex. These include, but are not limited to: 24.Adversarial Artificial Intelligence 25.Artificial Quantum Life 26.Augmented Intelligence 27.Conversational Artificial Intelligence 28.Procedural Content Generation 29.Quantum Deep Learning 30.Self-Learning Artificial Intelligence 31.Sentient Artificial Intelligence 32.Smart Data 313311institute.com BOOK AN EXPERT CALL4 /9 8 /10 7 TRL /9 A NALOGUE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, a General Purpose Technology, which is in the early Commercialisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to develop new kinds of AI systems that are compact, robust to noise, and capable of running parallel computations at very low power. Recently there have been several breakthroughs in the field with companies such as IBM and Microsoft who have not only developed new Analogue AI models and training methods but also the new generation of Analogue Computing platforms to support those AI’s. Seen as a potential paradigm shift in the field of AI one of the most interesting aspects of these AIs is the ability to process huge volumes of data with exceptionally low power requirements that are magnitudes smaller than the energy requirements of traditional Artificial Narrow Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence systems which, as we see on a daily basis are only getting more huge. DEFINITION Analogue Artificial Intelligence mimics the human cognitive process by processing information in a continuous non-digital manner. EXAMPLE USE CASES While Analogue AI has been around for decades in one form or another today they can be used to accelerate AI hardware, and do signal filtering, as well as being used to perform analogue pattern matching and anomaly detection in continuous analogue data streams such as those found in biomedical applications, environmental monitoring, and industrial processes. They are also increasingly effective at helping solve continuous optimisation problems. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade we will continue to see interest and investment in Analogue AI increase and accelerate, primarily driven by organisations in the Technology sector. While this technology has many interesting attributes the key one is its ability to drop the power consumption of large AI models by magnitudes, which means it could have longevity. While Analogue AI is still in the early Commercialisation Stage it could be enhanced by advances in Analogue Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Materials, Memristors, Nanotechnology, Neuromorphic Computing, Quantum Computing, Sensors, and other technologies, however over the long term it’s unclear what it could be superseded by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, establish a point of view, and re- visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 5 9 7 7 5 2 7 1962 1979 2018 2023 2039 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT ANALOGUE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 314311institute.com MRL1 /9 10 2 TRL /9 A RTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is in the very early Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing intelligent machines capable of performing any intellectual task that a human can, and when that even takes place many experts already agree that it will signal nothing less than a paradigm shift for human society with significant ripple effects and impacts. Recently there have been a couple of early stage breakthroughs in the space with the development of the world’s first AGI blueprint architecture, and then the unveiling of the world’s first nascent AGI that unlike it’s more traditional Artificial Narrow Intelligence cousins is capable of performing thirty tasks at once. DEFINITION Artificial General Intelligence is the point at which a machine can successfully perform any intellectual task that a human can. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first Artificial General Intelligence prototype is being used to test the viability of the initial blueprint architecture, test it and refine it, before iterating it further. In the future the primary use cases of this technology will be almost limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Defence and Technology sector, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the technology approach take off as the first viable examples emerge, after which the genie will then be out of the bottle, and as the global AI arms race continues to accelerate it is firmly my expectation that we will see the first true AGI platforms emerge by 2030, years earlier than currently predicted. While Artificial General Intelligence is in the very early Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial Narrow Intelligence, Cognitive Computing, Creative Machines, Exascale Computing, Federated Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Processing Units, Natural Language Processing, Neuromorphic Computing, Photonic Computing, Quantum Computing, Simulation Engines, and Terahertz Computer Chips, and eventually replaced by Artificial Super Intelligence. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 1 2 5 3 9 4 2 8 1963 1974 2018 2032 2034 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 315311institute.com MRL9 /9 10 9 TRL /9 A RTIFICIAL NARROW INTELLIGENCE, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is in the Mass Adoption Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing intelligent machines that are as capable, or more capable, than humans at performing certain specific tasks. Recently the number of breakthroughs, the rate of development, and the level of interest in the field has exploded the technology is now achieving lift off and going mainstream, being embedded into almost every corner of the world’s digital fabric. DEFINITION Artificial Narrow Intelligence is a form of machine intelligence that is focused on accomplishing one narrow task. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the use of Artificial Narrow Intelligence is growing at an unprecedented rate, including in healthcare diagnostics, personalised advertising and targeting, government policy making, internet search and services, manufacturing, quantitative trading, Robo-”X” services, security and surveillance, and millions more. In the future the primary use cases of this technology will be almost limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at a highly accelerated rate, led by organisations across all sectors, with support from government funding, industry consortiums, and university grants. In time we will see the technology reach a point where its use is ubiquitous and it will be rare to find products and services that do not leverage it in one way or another. While Artificial Narrow Intelligence is in the Mass Spread Adoption Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances inenhanced by advances in Cognitive Computing, Creative Machines, Federated Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Processing Units, Natural Language Processing, Photonic Computing, Quantum Computing, Simulation Engines, and Terahertz Computer Chips, and eventually replaced by Artificial General Intelligence. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 9 6 7 9 9 9 5 9 1941 1951 1953 1955 2023 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT ARTIFICIAL NARROW INTELLIGENCE STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 316311institute.com MRL1 /9 10 1 TRL /9 A RTIFICIAL SUPER INTELLIGENCE, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is still in the Concept Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing the first generation of super intelligent machines whose intellectual capabilities and performance far outstrip those of humans. As a consequence many experts agree that the emergence of ASI will have a greater impact on human evolution and society as the discovery of electricity and fire. Similarly, given the capability of the technology there are many experts that view its emergence with extreme caution, going so far as painting apocalyptic visions of the future, but, whatever the reality only time will tell whether the same technology that could potentially help humans discover new ways to live forever, and take us into inter-stellar space, will also annihilate us. DEFINITION Artificial Super Intelligence is the point at which a machine is capable of exceeding the intellectual capabilities and performance of humans. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today Artificial Super Intelligence is just a concept, but there are many experts who believe its emergence will help us unlock the secrets to eternal life, inter-stellar space travel, and new powerful energy sources, among many other potential benefits. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow albeit from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the emergence of the first Artificial General Intelligence platforms and then, a decade or so later, by 2045, the emergence of the first ASI, and both events will be defining moments for the future of humanity. While Artificial Super Intelligence is in the Concept Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Artificial General Intelligence, Biological Computing, Chemical Computing, DNA Computing, Federated Artificial Intelligence, Liquid Computing, Neuromorphic Computing, Photonic Computing, and Quantum Computing, and it could potentially be replaced by a new form of Biological-Hybrid Artificial Super Intelligence, the result of multiple advances in multiple complimentary technology fields. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 1 1 2 1 9 2 1 8 1967 1981 2030 2041 2046 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘24 ARTIFICIAL SUPER INTELLIGENCE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 317311institute.com MRL9 /9 9 /10 9 TRL /9 C OGNITIVE COMPUTING, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is in the Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing machines with human-like decision, intelligence, and reasoning capabilities that can be interacted with in natural ways. In short one analogy would be to compare them to the Star Trek Enterprise computer platform, where the computer takes on the task of processing and making sense of huge volumes of information before presenting it to the human crew in a human-like manner. As a result Cognitive Computing platforms combine a variety of different fields together, including Artificial Intelligence and Natural Language Processing, and recent breakthroughs in all these fields mean they are now more capable than ever. DEFINITION Cognitive Computing is the simulation of Human thought processes in a computerised model or system. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Cognitive Computing in a myriad of ways, including creating adverts and to cook up new food recipes, as well as to augment human decision making, and as a debating, healthcare diagnostics, and investment tool. In the future the primary use of the technology will be in helping augment human decision making. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at a highly accelerated rate, primarily led by organisations in the Technology sector. In time we will see the technology’s capabilities grow and its ease of use, and usefulness, increase to a point where it, and its close relatives, will be able to augment human decision making in a wide range of fields and use cases. While Cognitive Computing is in the Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Creative Machines, Exascale Computing, Federated Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Processing Units, Neuromorphic Computing, Simulation Engines, and Terahertz Computer Chips, and in time it will be replaced by Artificial General Intelligence. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 8 6 5 7 9 7 4 8 1976 1991 2006 2014 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT COGNITIVE COMPUTING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 318311institute.com MRL7 /9 10 9 TRL /9 C REATIVE MACHINES, a GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY, which is in the Prototype Stage and early Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with using Adversarial Artificial Intelligence and other complimentary technologies to build machines capable of matching and exceeding human creativity and ingenuity. In short, it is the effort to create machines that can create, imagine and innovate by themselves, without the need for human intervention, at speeds that are tens to hundreds of thousands times faster than humans. Recently there have been a spate of breakthroughs, from the creation of machines that can dynamically create art, literature, music, photos, scripts and videos, through to machines capable of performing iterative innovation, and creating new hardware and software products. DEFINITION Creative Machines are intelligent machines that are capable of emulating and simulating human ingenuity and the creative process. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Creative Machines to help us design new products, including aircraft, clothes, furniture, lunar landers, robots, and vehicles, as well as create adverts, art, literature, movies, and music, and to design, compile, and evolve new Artificial Intelligence software, and computer programs. In the future the primary use case of this technology will be limitless. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Construction, Entertainment, Manufacturing, Retail, and Technology sector, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the technology move from a point where it is capable of basic design and iteration to a point where it is capable of producing its own disruptive, primary innovations and creations. While Creative Machines are in the Prototype Stage and Productisation early Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Adversarial Artificial Intelligence, Artificial General Intelligence, Artificial Narrow Intelligence, Artificial Super Intelligence, Intelligence Processing Units, and Simulation Engines, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 6 3 5 9 6 3 9 1965 2008 2014 2016 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 CREATIVE MACHINES EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 319311institute.com MRLNext >