< Previous3 /9 2 /10 5 TRL /9 S TRUCTURAL BATTERIES, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with finding new ways to turn fixed structures and materials into batteries. Recently there have been breakthroughs in turning Carbon Fiber and other materials into Structured Batteries using Carbon Nanotubes that can generate and store electricity and then release it when needed, and this, and other breakthroughs mean that one day it will be possible to create so called “battery-less” products where the materials that make up the products are the same materials that power them, thereby eliminating the need to use dedicated, separate battery systems. Today the first structural batteries are being lined up to create the world’s first battery-less electric hyper- car, the Lambourghini Terzo Millenio, and in time many more applications will follow. DEFINITION Structural Batteries are sheets of composite materials capable of storing and releasing energy that can be moulded into complex 3D shapes to form the actual structure of a device. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first Structural Battery prototypes are being used to prove the technology’s viability, and to refine it before attempts are made to productise it. In the future the primary use cases of this technology will include using it to turn any material or structure into a battery capable of powering anything from entire buildings and cities, to electric aircraft and electric vehicles. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, albeit from a low base, primarily led by organisations in the Aerospace, Energy and Manufacturing sectors, with support from government funding and university grants. While Structural Batteries are in the Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in 3D Printing, 3D Bio-Printing, Bio-Batteries, Carbon Nanotubes, CRISPR Gene Editing, Nano-Manufacturing, Printable Batteries, Semi- Synthetic Cells, Synthetic Cells, and Wireless Energy, but at this point in time it is not clear what they will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 4 2 5 3 9 3 3 9 1995 1998 2017 2030 2034 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 STRUCTURAL BATTERIES EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 300311institute.com MRL9 /9 2 /10 9 TRL /9 T HERMOELECTRIC GENERATORS, which are in the Mass Adoption Stage, is the field of research concerned with finding new ways to efficienctly extract energy from the thermal differences in substances. Even though this technology is decades old and generally regarded as mature recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Materials now mean that in many respects it’s getting a new lease of life. Recently there have been significant developments in merging this technology with other impactful technologies such as Photovoltaics - the unison of which have finally made it possible for solar panels to generate electricy 247 day and night, which is huge, and which also helps drop the cost of water desalination. At a more basic level though the energy energy conversion efficiency of some thermal generators now exceeds 40% which is a major milestone, and we are now seeing the emergence of flexible thermoelectric generation devices which capture even more thermal energy and drive new use cases. DEFINITION Thermoelectric Generators are solid state devices that convert temperature differences directly into electrical energy. EXAMPLE USE CASES While Thermoelectric Generators have been around of decades their new energy efficiency levels mean that they are increasingly being used to augment other energy generation technologies such as Ocean Thermal Energy and Photovoltaics. At a smaller scale use cases also include using them to power wearable devices, improving ship efficiency, and flexible thermoelectric generators can be wrapped round pipes to capture and convert otherwise lost heat energy. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade we will continue to see interest in this field accelerate, predominantly led by the energy sector. The race to Net Zero and decabonisation has spurred renewed interest in this field and more broadly in “waste” energy capture. While over the long term it will only ever play a small role in the future energy mix the ubiquity of thermal differences means that it’s a highly desirable complimentary energy technology which means ergo it has staying power. While Thermoelectric Generators are in the Mass Adoption Stage they could be enhanced by advances in AI, Materials, and other technologies, however over the long term it’s unclear what it could be superseded by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 5 8 8 7 5 5 9 1928 1932 1939 1948 1971 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT THERMOELECTRIC GENERATORS STARBURST APPEARANCES: NONE EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 301311institute.com MRL6 /9 4 /10 8 TRL /9 T HORIUM REACTORS, which are in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to build and commercialise the world’s first Thorium reactors which offer the same generation capacity as today’s nuclear reactors, without leaving such a damaging, and long lasting nuclear waste problem. While there have recently been developments in the space, with the first new prototype reactor coming online in decades, and a number of countries providing researchers with a boost in funding, the fact of the matter is that progress in the field is still agonisingly slow. DEFINITION Thorium Reactors use Thorium a stable Earth isotope that doesn’t need enrichment and produce up to 10,000 times less long lived radioactive waste than traditional Nuclear Reactors. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today the first prototype Thorium Reactors are being used to test and refine the technology before its eventual productisation. in the future the primary use cases of the technology will be as primary generating capacity to feed energy into the grid. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, albeit from a very low base, primarily led by organisations in the Energy sector, with support from government grants. While Thorium Reactors are in the Prototype Stage, over the long term they will be enhanced by advances in Nano- Vascular Composites, and replaced by Fusion Reactors, Space Based Solar Platforms. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, and re-visit it every few years until progress in the space accelerates. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 2 2 7 2 4 3 2 5 1952 1966 2002 2045 >2075 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT THORIUM REACTORS STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 302311institute.com MRL9 /9 5 /10 9 TRL /9 W IRELESS ENERGY, which is in the Prototype Stage and Productisation Stage, is the field of research concerned with trying to create long range, high capacity wireless charging systems that can be used to charge everything from sensors and smartphones, to televisions and vehicles. Recently there have been substantial breakthroughs in the field with the maximum range and the amount of energy that can be transmitted wirelessly increasing by orders of magnitude, and now that the regulators have approved the technology for wide spread commercial use, for distances of up to 15 feet, the technology will soon go mainstream. DEFINITION Wireless Energy is the transfer electromagnetic power to another device without the need to use wires. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using Wireless Energy to charge our smartphones, and small cars and drones. In the future the primary use cases of this technology will be to charge a wide variety of devices and products, from sensors to vehicles, including aircraft and semi-trucks, and everything in between. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow at an accelerating rate, primarily led by organisations in the Aerospace, Defence, Energy and Manufacturing sector, with support from government funding, and university grants. In time we will see the range of the technology, and the amount of energy that can be transmitted increase substantially, which will have a dramatic impact on its wide spread adoption. While Wireless Energy is in the Prototype Stage and Productisation Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Bio-Batteries, Piezoelectric Energy Systems, Triboelectric Materials, and Photovoltaics, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, with a view to implementing it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 8 7 6 9 9 7 8 9 1955 2002 2006 2010 2028 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 WIRELESS ENERGY EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 303311institute.com MRLGEOENGINEERINGH UMANITY IS using geoengineering as a means to fulfil two fundamental requirements. The first of which is to help us reign in, and re-engineer the climate of our own planet, and the second of which is to help us colonise new worlds, such as Mars, an endeavour which will get underway in the next few years. Once seen as a way to bring rain to drought stricken areas geoengineering is now being seen by many in the global scientific community as our “Plan B” if our “Plan A” to tackle climate change fails, and today countries around the world, such as China, are investing hundreds of millions of dollars to develop and roll out “monster” climate engineering schemes that cover millions of square miles of territory. Today this category is being driven, primarily, by advances in two significant and ascending technology fields, namely Carbon Sequestration and Climate Engineering. In this section you will find details of the emerging technologies that made it into this years Griffin Emerging Technology Starburst along with details of other impactful emerging technologies: 1.Archologies 2.Carbon Sequestration 3.Climate Engineering 4.Solar Geo-Engineering 5.Terraforming In addition to these emerging technologies there are many others that have yet to get an entry in this codex. These include, but are not limited to: 6.High Frequency Atmospheric Manipulation 7.Single Step Desalination Systems 8.Solid State Greenhouse Effects 305311institute.com BOOK AN EXPERT CALL5 /9 2 /10 8 TRL /9 A RCOLOGIES WERE first bought to life in the 1980’s and, arguably, they’re an architectural concept that won’t die, perhaps on the one hand it’s because architects and designers aren’t certain that the world that we’re going to be leaving for our children will be habitable. However, that said, as a range of complimentary manufacturing technologies, such as 3D Printing continue to mature, and as humankind continues to strive to become an inter-planetary species it’s highly likely that these large, self contained “smart cities in a jar”will one day become a reality. DEFINITION Archologies are integrated self sustaining cities contained within massive vertical structures. EXAMPLE USE CASES While the future use cases for the technology show great potential, such as the ability to build fully self contained cities on, initially the Moon and Mars, the current use cases here on Earth are limited only by companies and individuals willingness to invest in the technology, and the concept. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade, the technology will continue to languish in the realms of science fiction because today on Earth few people see the need, or have the desire to build self-sustaining self-contained cities, however, if we did want to build such monoliths today, both on land and at sea, we could do it very easily and incorporate a variety of different technologies, such as 3D Printing, renewable energy systems, smart city and smart home technologies, and vertical farms into the design. While Archologies are still in the ascending phase today it isn’t clear that anything could replace them. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION Archologies are a moderately disruptive technology that is still at the concept stage. As a result, in the long term, I suggest companies put it onto their radars and keep an eye on it while at the same time paying more attention to the technologies that underpin the concept. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 3 3 2 7 9 5 2 9 1970 1985 1992 2007 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT ARCHOLOGIES STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 306311institute.com MRL8 /9 2 /10 9 TRL /9 C ARBON SEQUESTRATION has been on the ascent for the past couple of decades but the cost and complexity of bringing these technologies, which need to operate at scale, to market has been prohibitive. As a consequence many of the companies involved in the sector have been forced to either reign in their ambitions, or focus on niche markets. That said though, as costs continue to fall and these programs become increasingly cost effective the technology is now starting to make some headway, albeit slowly. DEFINITION Carbon Sequestration is the natural or artificial process by which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and held in solid or liquid form. EXAMPLE USE CASES While many of the future use cases for the technology will rely on it being able to be absorb and convert Carbon at scale and store it safely, as demonstrated by the huge city sized carbon capture facilities shown off in the movies, recent technology breakthroughs have shown us that it is possible to create zero emission fossil fuel power stations, as well as a new “Carbon Farming” industry that draws Carbon out of the environment using genetically modified bacteria. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade the technology will continue to gain traction and diversify, especially as many climate scientists warn that sovereign nations attempts to slow climate change are not enough, and today I am seeing an increase in the rate of investment, the size and diversity of the projects, and the efficiency of the carbon capture platforms being deployed. However, whereas in the past companies rallied around chemical capture technology solutions now they are increasingly focusing on the benefits of genetic engineering and investing in biological platforms, as a result there is the chance that they could face new regulatory hurdles and be embroiled in debates about Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO). While Carbon Sequestration technology is still an ascending technology, as it diversifies from chemical to biological based platforms, it is not yet clear what these new platforms will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION Carbon Sequestration is a moderately disruptive technology that can help companies lower their tax liabilities and improve their eco credentials. As a result in the short to medium term I suggest companies put it on their radars and keep an eye on it. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 7 4 4 6 7 6 4 7 1983 1994 1998 2014 2032 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT CARBON SEQUESTRATION STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 307311institute.com MRL5 /9 8 /10 9 TRL /9 C LIMATE ENGINEERING continues to be a contentious issue, but one nevertheless that several governments and research institutes are ploughing huge sums of money into. While the overall impact that local climate engineering projects have on the global climate still hasn’t been quantified there are many that suspect that some of the recent projects, for example, those in China, which in some cases have increased regional rainfall by over 50 billion cubic meters, must have an effect elsewhere. DEFINITION Climate Engineering is the deliberate and large scale intervention and manipulation of a planets climatic system. EXAMPLE USE CASES While many of the future use cases of this technology will involve both large planetary scale, as well as smaller, more local deployments, what will change over time is the precision of the technology, and the quality of the results it produces. Today’s use cases in the main are still restricted to local and regional climate engineering projects that spur rainfall, or help create the right conditions for specific public events, however China is now taking the lead when it comes to large, national scale projects with some of the latest projects covering over a quarter of the nation. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade, as researchers continue to experiment with new techniques and tools that include new materials and chemicals, as well as new, smart autonomous delivery and deployment platforms, we will continue to see an increase in the size of the ecosystem and the amount of investment being poured into the areas. We will also continue to see an improvement in the precision and the results these projects deliver, and as many experts around the world continue to believe that climate change is either nearing, or very near to its global tipping point, we will continue to see an increase in the number of institutions who develop and promote their new platforms as “Plan B” in case governments “Plan A” fails. While Climate Engineering technology is still in the ascending phase one day it is highly likely that it will be wrapped into new Terraforming platforms. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION Climate Engineering is a highly disruptive technology that has already been productised, albeit at an early stage. Companies should perform a thorough assessment of its medium to long term impact on their business. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 9 6 4 8 7 6 5 8 1942 1984 1986 1989 2038 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT CLIMATE ENGINEERING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 308311institute.com MRL4 /9 7 /10 6 TRL /9 S OLAR GEO-ENGINEERING, which is in the Prototype Stage, is the field of research concerned with developing new ways to block or deflect the Sun’s rays away from reaching the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere in order to limit and or reduce the amount of global warming the planet experiences. Recent breakthroughs in the field have managed to demonstrate that medium scale Solar Geo-Engineering projects that could lower local or global temperatures by a few degrees are technologically feasible. Furthermore, as the climate crisis deepens many scientists are now also proposing that we consider going one step further and, rather than simply using the technology to blanket one or more specific areas or regions, we scale the it up to a size where it has the blanketing impact equivalent to a Supervolcano eruption. DEFINITION Solar Geo-Engineering technologies counteract climatic temperature increases by reflecting more sunlight away from the Earth’s surface. EXAMPLE USE CASES Today we are using small scale prototypes to prove the theory behind the technology and refine it. In the future the primary use case for this technology will be as a Plan B to reduce the impact of climate change and global warming in the event that the world reaches a catastrophic point of no return by reflecting the majority of the Sun’s energy back into space. FUTURE TRAJECTORY AND REPLACABILITY Over the next decade interest in the field will continue to accelerate, and interest and investment will continue to grow, primarily led by univesity grants. In time as the technology is refined and as global temperatures continue to rise we will inevitably see an increase in the number of voices demanding that organisations begin trials of the technology to evaluate its efficacy. While Solar Geo-Engineering is in the Prototype Stage, over the long term it will be enhanced by advances in Materials, but at this point in time it is not clear what it will be replaced by. MATTHEW’S RECOMMENDATION In the short to medium term I suggest companies put the technology on their radars, explore the field, establish a point of view, experiment with it, and forecast out the potential implications of the technology. 15 SECOND SUMMARY Accessibility Affordability Competition Demonstration Desirability Investment Regulation Viability 6 6 4 8 7 4 2 8 1979 1997 2008 2030 2042 STATUS PRIMARY GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS IMPACT SOLAR GEO-ENGINEERING STARBURST APPEARANCES: ‘20, ‘21, ‘22, ‘23, ‘24 EXPLORE MORE. Click or scan me to learn more about this emerging tech. 309311institute.com MRLNext >