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The Future of Recycling 2040

Invited by Sophie Burrige OBE, Chairman of the Bureau of International Recycling, which represents most of the world's major recyclers, to keynote in Abu Dhabi.

Matthew Griffin on stage: The Future of Recycling 2040Hover to preview from 5:00 · clickTap to watch with sound
Matthew GriffinFounder, 311 Institute
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Sophie Burrige OBE, Chairman of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR), invited Matthew to keynote in Abu Dhabi. BIR represents most of the world's major recyclers from every corner of the industry, from e-waste, fabrics and plastics to demolition and scrap metal.

Recycling is arguably the industry with the greenest vision of all: to enable the circular economy through the continuous recycling and reuse of materials and resources. Yet, as Matthew noted, many see it as one of the most underrated industries in the world as we try to avert the climate crisis.

"Every year humanity uses over 100 Billion tonnes of the Earth's resources, produces over 2.4 Billion tonnes of hard waste, and recycles just 312 Million tonnes, a figure that is dismal by anyone's standards."Matthew Griffin, Abu Dhabi, December 2023

The numbers are stark. Every year humanity uses over 100 billion tonnes of the Earth's resources, produces over 2.4 billion tonnes of hard waste, and recycles just 312 million tonnes. That is not down to the industry's will or technology, which is greater than many think. It is because most rubbish goes into the wrong bins, and because investors focused on ESG overlook the need to build and scale global recycling capacity.

Matthew gave a state of the union for the industry, worked through the global statistics and lifted the lid on government green policies. He then showed the latest recycling technologies that will help processors remove toxic chemicals from recycling, raise material and resource recovery rates, and decarbonise the industry further.

311 Intelligence

What this means for your leadership team

The gap is about capacity.

The recycling industry has the will and the technology, yet most rubbish still goes into the wrong bins. Investors focused on ESG also overlook the need to build global recycling capacity. With household and business rubbish set to rise from 2.1 to 3.8 billion tonnes a year by 2050, that gap grows if nothing changes.

Policy and economics may collide.

Governments are writing minimum recycled-content shares for plastic packaging into law. At the same time, chemical recycling plants are being paused, cancelled or closed as the economics fail. Leaders who rely on recycled supply should test whether it will exist when the rules arrive.

Recovery technology needs scrutiny.

Better processing can remove toxic chemicals, raise recovery rates and cut the industry's carbon. Chemical battery recycling, which recovers lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, shows what is possible. Yet firms and governments are redesigning products for a circular economy while global circularity slips, so claims need checking against real capacity.

Three questions for your next leadership meeting

  1. Where does our waste end up in the wrong bin, and who owns that?
  2. Could recycled-content rules reach our products before our supply chain is ready?
  3. Are we funding recycling capacity, or only reporting on ESG?

The trends and technologies behind this session

From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.

Questions and answers

What does this session mean for organisations?

It shows that low recycling is a capacity and sorting problem, not a lack of ambition or technology. Organisations should look at how their waste is separated, where recycling capacity will come from, and whether investment is reaching it.

How does the Global Waste trend relate to the session?

Household and business rubbish is set to rise from 2.1 to 3.8 billion tonnes a year by 2050. Matthew's figures show recycling at just 312 million tonnes against over 2.4 billion tonnes of hard waste. Rising volumes make the capacity gap more urgent.

How do recycled plastic mandates relate to the session?

Governments are writing minimum recycled-content shares for plastic packaging into law. The session showed that recycling capacity is not being scaled to match. Firms may face legal targets before enough recycled material is available.

How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?

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Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.

The 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex cover
If Matthew gave this session today

Hundreds of megatrends and microtrends in one codex.

The 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex brings together the hundreds of megatrends and microtrends shaping the world, useful context for the resource and waste pressures Matthew set out for BIR's members.

Read The 311 Institute Annual Trends Codex, free
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"Secured the highest average rating on the day. One client rated the session 10 out of 5."John Rugg, AXA Investment Managers

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