Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
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17codexes
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Mark Searle, Director of Safety at IATA, the trade association for the world's airlines representing more than 300 airlines and 83% of all passenger journeys, invited Matthew to keynote this year's IATA WSOC Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. More than 600 aviation leaders, government officials, regulators and operators gathered to hear the industry's latest safety and operations practices and breakthroughs.
With a focus on efficiency, safety and sustainability, Matthew explored what the next ten years hold as the industry digitises and embeds AI into every part of its operations. The pandemic hit hard, with over 97 percent of aircraft mothballed, heavy layoffs and some operators close to bankruptcy, but the industry has rebounded and needs another 37,500 aircraft to meet future demand.
"Famously one of the safest industries on Earth, aviation, like many others, faces new threats, with a dramatic increase in cyber attacks now threatening Air Traffic Control operations."Matthew Griffin, Hanoi, December 2023
Aviation is famously one of the safest industries on Earth, with no fatalities again last year, yet it faces new threats: a sharp rise in cyber attacks on air traffic control, and data and GPS spoofing that now affect airline operations worldwide.
On efficiency, new technologies are automating operations and speeding up the development of autonomous aircraft and ground vehicles. On sustainability, arguably the industry's greatest Achilles heel, he covered advances in ammonia, electric and hydrogen aircraft and the growing role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel as capacity increases, which should see the industry make much greater inroads into decarbonising itself from 2030.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Cyber risk now reaches the sky.
Attacks on air traffic control, and data and GPS spoofing, now affect airline operations worldwide. Safety teams can no longer treat cyber security as a separate IT matter. It is part of the safety case.
Demand is back, capacity is short.
The industry has rebounded from the pandemic and needs another 37,500 aircraft. Air traffic control is a hard limit on flight growth, as controller shortages and old systems hold it back. Planning for more aircraft without planning for the airspace will leave a gap.
Decarbonisation depends on fuel supply.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel is growing as capacity increases, and the industry should make much greater inroads from 2030. Governments are setting blending rules while supply lags. Ammonia is further out, with wide use not expected until 2055, so leaders should watch it rather than bet on it.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Is cyber security part of our safety management system?
Where does air traffic control limit our growth plans?
How secure is our Sustainable Aviation Fuel supply?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does this session mean for aviation organisations?
The industry is digitising and automating fast while safety and sustainability pressure grows. Organisations should treat cyber resilience, airspace capacity and fuel supply as linked planning issues, with 2030 as the key date for decarbonisation.
How does the Sustainable Aviation Fuel trend relate to the session?
Matthew pointed to the growing role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel as capacity increases. Our trend data shows governments forcing airlines to blend it while supply lags far behind the rules. Wide use is expected around 2030, so the action is to prepare.
How does the air traffic control crunch relate to the session?
The session flagged cyber attacks on air traffic control, which adds risk to a system already under strain. Our trend data shows controller shortages and old systems making it a hard limit on flight growth, so the action is to act now.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Hundreds of emerging technologies, and what they mean.
The Future of Exponential Technology Codex explores hundreds of emerging technologies and their implications for industry, a wider map of the automation and AI advances Matthew set out for aviation's safety leaders.
