New pre-crime tech detects shoplifters before they commit the crime
AI's that can predict outcomes from users behaviours are becoming increasingly common, and one of the biggest beneficiaries of that is the area of pre-crime detection.
Key takeaways
- Watch it in action Vaak made headlines last year when it helped to nab a shoplifter at a convenience store in Yokohama.
- While that amounts to approximately 2 percent of revenue, it can make a huge difference in an industry known for razor-thin margins.
- Retailers are projected to invest $200 billion in new technology this year, according to Gartner, as they become more open to embracing technology to meet consumer needs, as well as improve bottom lines.
Cite or link to this article
Griffin, M. (2019) 'New pre-crime tech detects shoplifters before they commit the crime', 311 Institute, 12 April. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/new-pre-crime-tech-detects-shoplifters-before-they-commit-the-crime/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).
It’s watching, and knows a crime is about to take place before it happens, this is the world of pre-crime, and whether it's detecting people with criminal intent from a photo, liars, or just being used to single out guilty people from just their brainwaves it's getting better all the time. Now Vaak, a Japanese start up, has developed Artificial Intelligence (AI) pre-crime technology that hunts out potential shoplifters, using footage from security cameras for fidgeting, restlessness and other potentially suspicious body language.
While AI is usually envisioned as a smart personal assistant or self-driving car, it turns out the technology is pretty good at spotting nefarious behaviour too. Like a scene out of the movie “Minority Report,” algorithms analyse security camera footage and alert staff about potential thieves via a smartphone app. The goal is prevention, if the target is approached and asked if they need help, there’s a good chance the theft never happens.
Vaak made headlines last year when it helped to nab a shoplifter at a convenience store in Yokohama. Vaak had set up its software in the shop as a test case, which picked up on previously undetected shoplifting activity. The perpetrator was arrested a few days later.
“I thought then, ‘Ah, at last!’” said Vaak founder Ryo Tanaka, 30. “We took an important step closer to a society where crime can be prevented with AI.”
Shoplifting cost the global retail industry about $34 billion in lost sales in 2017, the biggest source of shrinkage, according to a report from Tyco Retail Solutions. While that amounts to approximately 2 percent of revenue, it can make a huge difference in an industry known for razor-thin margins.
The opportunity is huge. Retailers are projected to invest $200 billion in new technology this year, according to Gartner, as they become more open to embracing technology to meet consumer needs, as well as improve bottom lines.
“If we go into many retailers whether in the US or UK, there are very often going to be CCTV cameras or some form of cameras within the store operation,” said Thomas O’Connor, a retail analyst at Gartner. “That’s being leveraged by linking it to an analytics tool, which can then do the actual analysis in a more efficient and effective way.”
Because it involves security, retailers have asked AI software suppliers such as Vaak and London based Third Eye Labs not to disclose their use of the anti-shoplifting systems. It’s safe to assume, however, that several big-name store chains in Japan have deployed the technology in some form or another. Vaak has met with or been approached by the biggest publicly traded convenience-store and drugstore chains in Japan, according to Tanaka.
Big retailers have already been adopting AI technology to help them do business. Apart from inventory management, delivery optimization and other enterprise needs, AI algorithms run customer-support chatbots on websites. Image and video analysis is also being deployed, such as Amazon’s Echo Look, that gives users fashion and style advice.
“We’re still just discovering all the market potential,” Tanaka said. “We want to keep expanding the scope of the company.”
Founded in 2017, Vaak is currently testing in a few dozen stores in the Tokyo area. The company began selling a market-ready version of its shoplifting-detection software this month, and is aiming to be in 100,000 stores across Japan in three years. It has 50 million yen ($450,000) in funding from SoftBank Group’s AI fund, and is in the middle of its series A round, seeking to raise 1 billion yen.
What makes AI based shoplifting detection a straightforward proposition is the fact that most of the hardware, security cameras, is usually already in place.
“Essentially this is using something that’s been underutilized for decades,” said Vera Merkatz, business development manager at Third Eye. Founded in 2016, the startup offers services similar to Vaak in the UK market, where it has a deal with a major grocery chain.
The ability to detect and analyse unusual human behaviour also has other applications. Vaak is developing a video based self-checkout system, and wants to use the videos to collect information on how consumers interact with items in the store to help shops display products more effectively. Beyond retail, Tanaka envisions using the video software in public spaces and train platforms to detect suspicious behaviour or suicide jumpers. Meanwhile at Third Eye, Merkatz said she’s been approached by security management companies looking to leverage their AI technology.
“The potential is broad since it can be applied outside of shoplifting prevention and outside of retail, such as with manufacturing or other types of marketing,” said Hiroaki Ando, a retail consultant at Ernst & Young Advisory & Consulting Co. in Tokyo.
What this means for your organisation
Existing cameras become sensors.
Most of the hardware is usually already in place, which is why this is a straightforward proposition. The software reads fidgeting, restlessness and other body language, then alerts staff through a smartphone app. Vera Merkatz of Third Eye calls it using something underutilised for decades.
Prevention matters more than arrest.
The goal is to approach a target and ask if they need help, so the theft never happens. Shoplifting cost the global retail industry about $34 billion in 2017, roughly 2 percent of revenue, in an industry of razor-thin margins. Retail crime stays high and is driving new laws, so the pressure to act is real.
Expect quiet adoption and wider use.
Retailers have asked suppliers not to disclose their use of these systems, so rivals may already be using them. Vaak aims to be in 100,000 stores across Japan in three years, and founder Ryo Tanaka sees uses in public spaces and on train platforms. Activity based security is already at technology readiness level 9, with wide use expected by 2030.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
- Which cameras do we already own that could feed behaviour analysis?
- How would staff approach a flagged shopper without causing offence or error?
- What rules and checks should govern any system that judges behaviour?
The trends and technologies behind this story
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s article and 311 data. First published on Fanatical Futurist.
FAQ
Why does this matter?
AI's that can predict outcomes from users behaviours are becoming increasingly common, and one of the biggest beneficiaries of that is the area of pre-crime detection.

About the author
Matthew Griffin Founder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."
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Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 17-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder, President and Futurist of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.
An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity program, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.
As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.
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Sources and further reading
Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 12 April 2019. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2019). New pre-crime tech detects shoplifters before they commit the crime. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/new-pre-crime-tech-detects-shoplifters-before-they-commit-the-crime/
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