Electricity from the ocean depths could power entire island nations
The ocean contains a huge amount of heat energy, but so far tapping into it hasn't been easy. But that might change.
Key takeaways
- A pilot plant in Hawaii installed by Makai Ocean Engineering in 2015 has a capacity of 100 kilowatts.
- To scale up to a more useful 100-megawatt plant, Makai estimates the pipe would have to be ten meters in diameter and go as deep as one kilometer.
- Makai estimates 12 commercial-scale offshore plants could cover Hawaii’s total electricity needs.
Cite or link to this article
Griffin, M. (2023) 'Electricity from the ocean depths could power entire island nations', 311 Institute, 2 January. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/electricity-from-the-ocean-depths-could-power-entire-island-nations/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).
When it comes to the future of energy we’re all familiar with the conventional forms of energy whether it’s hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, or even perhaps fusion. But what about ocean thermal energy plants? In the tropics, the deep sea is cold and the sea surface is very warm. That temperature difference can be harnessed and turned into electricity. And, if we can improve the technology, this method of producing power could be a godsend especially for island nations reliant on expensive and polluting diesel for their power.
For more than a century, researchers have explored the idea of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). There’s nothing fundamentally new to the idea of extracting power from temperature differences, after all that’s what all kinds of thermoelectric generators, some of which are now helping solar panels generate electricity 247, are already harnessing. In fact, the underlying technology is similar to the way coal, gas and geothermal power plants create electricity, by using vapor to spin a turbine.
The Future of Energy 2050, by keynote futurist Matthew Griffin
The challenge though is finding the right spot, where the temperature differences make it worthwhile. In the case of ocean thermal energy plants that means relatively close to the equator, think north of Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and off the coast of southern Japan. At present, pilot plants are only able to generate a fraction of what a large wind turbine can. But on the positive side, ocean thermal plants can generate power 24 hours a day irrespective of any other factors.
These power plants operate by running liquids with low boiling points, such as ammonia, through a closed loop. The heat from warm seawater (between 20 and 30℃) heats the liquid until it turns into vapor and can be used to spin a turbine. Then, the vapor is exposed to cold seawater (around 5℃), which turns it back into a liquid so the cycle can continue. To get this cold water, these plants have pipes stretching down 600 meters into the deep sea.
The benefits of the system are clear: it’s a closed loop, heated and cooled by heat exchangers with no discharge of the fluid to the ocean. And it’s available at all times, in contrast to the well-known intermittency challenges of better developed renewable technologies like solar and wind.
The downside is at present, the technology isn’t ready for prime time. A pilot plant in Hawaii installed by Makai Ocean Engineering in 2015 has a capacity of 100 kilowatts. That’s 20 to 30 times less than a typical wind turbine when operating, or the equivalent of around 12 solar arrays on homes or small businesses in Australia.
The main technical challenge to overcome is getting access to the large volumes of cold seawater required. Makai’s pilot uses a pipe one meter in diameter which plunges 670 meters into the ocean depths.
To scale up to a more useful 100-megawatt plant, Makai estimates the pipe would have to be ten meters in diameter and go as deep as one kilometer. This kind of infrastructure is expensive and must be built to withstand corrosion and cyclones.
If the plants are built offshore, the cost of transmission lines adds to the overall expense. Makai estimates 12 commercial-scale offshore plants could cover Hawaii’s total electricity needs.
If OTEC plants can be built large enough, the cost will come down. But there’s another challenge too. To get close to wind and solar’s cost, now as low as 1 to 2 cents per kilowatt hour, ocean thermal plants would need around four Niagara Falls worth of water flowing through the system at any one time.
Why is such a huge volume of water required? In short, a thermodynamic bottleneck. The physics of any energy conversion mean it’s impossible to convert all the heat energy into mechanical work like spinning the turbine. This efficiency issue is a real challenge for ocean thermal plants, where the energy conversion process has a relatively small temperature difference between warm and cool seawater. In turn, that means only a very small percentage of the heat energy in the seawater is converted to electricity.
While these plants couldn’t compete with wind and solar in large mainland markets, they could have a role for the small island states dotting the Pacific and Caribbean, as well as islands far from the main grid, such as Norfolk Island or many of the smaller Indonesian islands.
Island nations, in particular, tend to have high retail electricity prices, low electricity demand and a reliance on imported diesel for electricity generation. Researchers from South Korea and New Zealand have made the case that OTEC could be a viable source of baseload power for island states, but only after more pilot plants are built to help perfect the design of larger plants.
Most people though if tasked with helping an island state produce its own clean energy might first look at geothermal, a more mature technology with better economics. That’s because the areas most favorable for OTEC plants typically have significant potential for geothermal electricity as well, produced by drilling wells on land and using high-temperature fluids from those wells.
Still, OTEC could play a useful role in tackling several challenges at once. Take cooling. You can take the cool seawater and use as a form of air conditioning, as two resorts in French Polynesia are doing. You can also use this cool water in aquaculture to raise cold-water fish such as salmon, or as a way of keeping surface water cool during marine heatwaves threatening fish farming in New Zealand. It may even be possible to use OTEC plants to produce hydrogen as an export commodity in small island states. To meet our urgent emission reduction goals, it is worth exploring all renewable energy options.
Despite all the pros and cons though Hawaii for one isn’t writing off OTEC just yet. At this stage, however, it’s hard to see how ocean thermal plants can become competitive with better-established renewables, such as wind, solar, and even geothermal, given the vast volumes of cold seawater required so despite the renewed interest in the technology I for one would file it under “has potential, but needs more work”.
What this means for your organisation
Round-the-clock clean power.
Unlike solar and wind, ocean thermal plants run day and night. That makes them a strong fit for grids that lack storage. Island utilities should consider them alongside diesel.
Geography limits the market.
Plants need large temperature gaps found near the equator. Sites north of Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and southern Japan fit best. Firms in those regions should track pilot results.
Scale is the hard part.
Today's pilots produce a fraction of a large wind turbine's output. Getting enough cold water needs huge pipes into the deep sea. Expect engineering progress before commercial plants appear.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
- Could ocean thermal power replace diesel at our island or coastal sites?
- Which engineering firms could build deep-water pipes at scale?
- How does ocean thermal compare with storage plus solar for us?
The trends and technologies behind this story
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s article and 311 data. First published on Fanatical Futurist.
FAQ
Why does this matter?
The ocean contains a huge amount of heat energy, but so far tapping into it hasn't been easy. But that might change.

About the author
Matthew Griffin Founder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."
Read full bio
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 17-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder, President and Futurist of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.
An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity program, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.
As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.
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Sources and further reading
- Ocean thermal energy conversion makai.com
- four Niagara Falls eos.org
- made the case mdpi.com
- Energy management thalasso.intercontinental.com
- threatening fish farming theguardian.com
Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 2 January 2023. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2023). Electricity from the ocean depths could power entire island nations. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/electricity-from-the-ocean-depths-could-power-entire-island-nations/
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