Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
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The University of Oxford invited Matthew back to New College to talk about and discuss disruption and disintermediation in today's and tomorrow's world, spending a day with the audience in a centuries old classroom.
The group explored disintermediation across industries from energy and FMCG to insurance. With the exception of FMCG, participants felt the incumbents, not the disintermediators, would win in the long run. Matthew linked this to incumbents investing more in horizon scanning and spending more time at the fringes to decode disruption, because you can only be affected by disruption if you don't see it coming, or see it and fail to act. He suspected the same exercise in a London accelerator or at Station F would produce the opposite result.
"You can only be affected by disruption if you either don't see it coming in the first place, or if you see it and then don't take action to negate its impact."Matthew Griffin, Oxford, November 2017
The teams concluded that, with the right insights, technology and execution, everything can be disintermediated, from Ethereum taking on the credit card companies to supermarkets displacing high street grocers decades ago and renewables challenging the nuclear power industry. They also agreed there is no single magic formula behind it, but many.
There was consensus that disruption is accelerating and becoming cheaper, faster and more viral. Matthew's presentation explained why, and argued we haven't seen anything yet: creative machines that can build and operate Distributed Autonomous Organisations at near zero cost are arriving just as industries are hit by hundreds of exponential technologies, from AI, blockchain, machine vision and robotics to gene editing, nanotechnology and renewables. The future, he concluded, will be complicated and disruptive.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Seeing disruption is the real test.
Disruption only hurts organisations that fail to see it coming, or see it and do nothing. Incumbents in the Oxford session were expected to win because they invest more in horizon scanning and spend time at the fringes. That advantage lasts only while the habit does.
Every industry can be disintermediated.
The teams concluded that, with the right insights, technology and execution, anything can be disintermediated. Their examples ran from Ethereum against credit card companies to renewables against nuclear power. There is no single formula, so leaders should expect attacks from many directions. Industry collapse is the risk when investment shifts to new sectors.
The cost of attack keeps falling.
Disruption is becoming cheaper, faster and more viral. Creative machines that can build and operate Distributed Autonomous Organisations at near zero cost arrive as hundreds of exponential technologies reach industries. Blockchain is one of the building blocks. A small rival can now do what once needed a large firm.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Who in our sector is scanning the fringes more closely than we are?
Which of our intermediary roles could a near zero cost rival replace?
What would we do within a month of spotting a credible threat?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does the Oxford session mean for organisations?
It means disruption is a test of attention and action. Incumbents can win if they scan the fringes and respond. Those that stop looking, or look and delay, are the ones exposed.
How do exponential technologies relate to disruption?
The session argued that hundreds of exponential technologies are now hitting industries together. That is why disruption is becoming cheaper, faster and more viral. Leaders should treat them as a connected force, not a list of separate tools.
How do Decentralised Autonomous Organisations relate to disintermediation?
They are organisations run on blockchain rather than by a traditional management layer. Combined with creative machines, they point to rivals that operate at near zero cost. Incumbents should test where such a rival could replace a middle layer in their own business.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Whole industries could soon be disrupted in a day.
The Future of Exponential Disruption sets out the forces accelerating global disruption and how close we are to disrupting whole industries in a day, building on the case Matthew made at Oxford.
