Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
Mobility and logistics sessions forBuyInAutoalan KeskusliittoSlovakiaTechLondon Borough of HounslowWISTA InternationalCorporate World Intelligence
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Noel and his team invited Matthew to keynote the Nordic Digital Business Summit in Helsinki, Northern Europe's premier business event for IT professionals, where just under a thousand attendees discussed digital trade, Industry 4.0, the Internet of Things and sustainable cities. His subject was the future of transportation.
He began with the gap between childhood dreams of rockets and the reality of gridlocked, smog filled cities. The future of transport, he said, is easy to sum up: swap drivers and pilots for autonomous AI, swap combustion engines for batteries, and wrap everything up as an intelligent on demand service. He then put some magic back with hypersonic Chinese trains, Komatsu's house sized 250 ton autonomous electric dumper truck, autonomous cargo ships and trains, and Elon Musk's Mach 22 inter-continental passenger rockets.
"Over the next twenty years the transportation industry will see more change than it has in the previous 200, and the impacts of these changes will be felt within every industry, and every corner of society."Matthew Griffin, Helsinki, November 2017
The disruptive impact on transport and its upstream and downstream industries and supply chains, he argued, is total and irreversible. He even posited that by 2040 cars would not exist: once they are all self-driving and regulators remove the pedals and steering wheels, they are basically AI fuelled pods.
With over 1 billion petrol and diesel cars on the road and only 0.1 percent electric, he explained how planned bans on combustion engine sales from 2030 and 2040 by China, India, France, Germany and the UK, together over 3.2 Billion people, will accelerate electric adoption. Once that share reaches 1 percent, expected in 2023, most analysts believed oil would never recover to pre 2008 prices. He closed with the rise of decentralised smart grids, grid scale storage and tied-grid home batteries such as Tesla's Powerwall.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Drivers, engines and ownership all shift.
The talk reduced the future of transport to three swaps: autonomous control for human drivers and pilots, batteries for combustion engines, and on demand service for ownership. 311 data puts wide use of autonomous vehicles at 2032 and autonomous ships at 2036. Leaders in logistics, insurance and retail should test their models against that order of events.
Fuel bans will reshape energy demand.
Over 1 billion petrol and diesel cars are on the road and only 0.1 percent are electric. Planned bans on combustion engine sales from 2030 and 2040 across China, India, France, Germany and the UK cover over 3.2 Billion people. Once electric share reaches 1 percent, expected in 2023, analysts believed oil would not return to pre 2008 prices.
Power networks become part of transport.
Electric fleets need energy that is generated, stored and shared in new ways. The session closed on decentralised smart grids, grid scale storage and home batteries such as Tesla's Powerwall. 311 data puts wide use of smart grids and home batteries at 2030, and grid scale storage at 2028.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our products or routes depend on a human driver or pilot?
How exposed are our costs to petrol and diesel prices?
Who in our supply chain faces the biggest transport disruption first?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
It says transport change is total and irreversible, and that it reaches upstream and downstream industries and supply chains. Organisations should map where their business relies on drivers, combustion engines or cheap fuel, and plan for each to change.
How do autonomous vehicles relate to the 2040 transport picture?
They are the first swap in the talk, with autonomous control replacing drivers and pilots. 311 rates the trend as Explore, with wide use around 2032, as robotaxis move from pilots to paid city services.
How do smart grids relate to electric transport?
Electric fleets depend on power that is balanced, stored and delivered locally. The keynote closed on decentralised smart grids, and 311 rates smart grids as Prepare, with wide use around 2030.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Emerging technologies have implications for culture, industry and society.
The Future of Exponential Technology Codex explores hundreds of emerging technologies and their implications for industry and society, including the autonomous, electric and hypersonic transport Matthew described.
