Invited by Pekka Rissa, CEO of Autoalan Keskusliitto (AKL), Finland's central association for the automotive industry, to keynote the AKL Summit in Helsinki.
Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
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Pekka Rissa, CEO of AKL, the Autoalan Keskusliitto of Finland, invited Matthew to keynote this year's AKL Summit in Helsinki, where more than a thousand Finnish car dealers met for the first time since the onset of the pandemic to discuss the future of their industry and businesses.
As Finland's central association for the automotive industry, AKL represents over 3,000 dealerships. With Electric Vehicle (EV) sales rising, and semi and eventually fully autonomous vehicles on the way, many are seeing their livelihoods threatened and their revenues and profits fall by as much as 80 percent. The main reason is that, unlike internal combustion engine vehicles, EVs need far less after sales servicing and repair: the occasional new brakes, tyres, or sensor and wiring tweaks.
"The car manufacturers themselves are increasingly pivoting to become not better car companies, but tech powered super app companies."Matthew Griffin, Helsinki, November 2022
With the global automotive industry at a crossroads, dealers everywhere face a stark choice: adapt to the new norm or be disrupted and put out of business by it. On current projections, they have around five years to adapt.
In his keynote, Taking Opportunity Mobile, Matthew showed dealers what they can do and why. He also showed them how the car manufacturers they rely on are increasingly pivoting to become not better car companies, but tech powered super app companies.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Servicing income can vanish fast.
EVs need far less servicing and repair than internal combustion engine vehicles. For many Finnish dealers, revenues and profits have fallen by as much as 80 percent. Any firm that leans on one steady income stream should test what happens if it shrinks.
Your suppliers may become rivals.
Carmakers are pivoting to become tech powered super app companies, not better car companies. This fits the Cross-Industry Competition trend, where new rivals come from outside an industry. The Super App Expansion trend points to wide use around 2031.
The window to adapt is short.
On current projections dealers have around five years to adapt. Autonomous Vehicles are expected to reach wide use around 2032, and Industry Collapse is flagged for around 2030. Leaders should plan new income now, while there is still room to choose.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our income streams depends on a product that needs less servicing?
Could a supplier or partner become our competitor within five years?
What would we offer customers if our core service lost most of its value?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
It shows how a shift in technology can remove a main income stream within a few years. Finnish dealers face falling revenues as EVs need less servicing. Organisations in any sector should look for the same pattern in their own model.
How does Cross-Industry Competition relate to this session?
Carmakers are moving towards becoming tech powered super app companies. That is a supplier moving into new ground. The trend is rated Prepare, with wide use around 2028.
How does Super App Expansion relate to this session?
Super-apps bundle services such as payments, shopping and travel, and are pushing out of Asia into Western markets. Carmakers adopting this model changes what a dealer is competing against. The trend is rated Explore, with wide use around 2031.
How does Autonomous Vehicles relate to this session?
Semi and eventually fully autonomous vehicles are on the way, which adds to the pressure on dealers. The trend is rated Explore, with wide use around 2032. It sets the pace of change dealers must plan for.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Whole industries may soon be disrupted in a day.
The codex sets out the forces accelerating global disruption and how close we are to disrupting whole industries in a day, which is why dealers with around five years to adapt cannot wait.
