Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
Mobility and logistics sessions forBuyInAutoalan KeskusliittoSlovakiaTechLondon Borough of HounslowCorporate World IntelligenceManagement Events
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Phanthiam, Claudia and the WISTA and Hamburg Port Authority teams asked Matthew to give this year's keynote at WISTA's annual global summit in Hamburg. Originally planned for the year before, it was his first time on a real stage in about a year. German COVID-19 rules meant the event had to be held outside, so it took place under the domed roof of Hamburg's ATP Tennis Centre, in temperatures that never reached double digits.
His subject was the future of trade and shipping. When planning began almost two years earlier it was not a headline topic, but by the time of the summit the world's supply chains were snarled up, with record cargo backlogs at ports from California to Shanghai.
"The race is on to build and buy new ammonia, hydrogen, and LNG powered ships, which on average last for 27 years, meaning hundreds of billions of dollars have to be spent in an unprecedented amount of time."Matthew Griffin, Hamburg, May 2022
Hamburg itself showed the strain. Before the pandemic the average cargo ship arriving carried 4,000 containers; it was now 7,000, and terminals were struggling to clear empty containers fast enough to keep goods moving.
No industry is immune from disruption. With the shipping industry and the IMO aiming for Net Zero by 2050, the race is on to build and buy new ammonia, hydrogen and LNG powered ships by 2030. Because ships last on average 27 years, that means hundreds of billions of dollars have to be spent in an unprecedented amount of time.
Matthew called that just the tip of the green iceberg, and went on to cover everything from new ship designs to ship breakers.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Fuel choices lock in for decades.
Ships last on average 27 years, so a vessel bought now sets cost and emissions for a long time. With the IMO aiming for Net Zero by 2050, new ammonia, hydrogen and LNG powered ships are wanted by 2030. That means hundreds of billions of dollars must be spent very quickly.
Today's shortage may become tomorrow's surplus.
The strain seen in 2022 was a lack of capacity, with record cargo backlogs. 311 data points to a later risk, where record container ship orders create a long surplus that threatens freight rates. Plans built only on today's tight market could be caught out.
Old ships are part of the plan.
Matthew's session reached ship breakers as well as new designs. 311 data suggests decarbonisation rules and a new global treaty could drive more ship recycling, mostly on South Asian beaches. Leaders should treat the end of a ship's life as part of the buying decision.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which fuel bet are we making, and what happens if it is wrong?
How exposed are our freight costs to a future surplus of ships?
Do our suppliers have a plan for ships reaching the end of life?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does this session mean for organisations that move goods?
It means fuel and fleet choices made now will last, because ships run for 27 years on average. Firms that ship goods should ask how their carriers plan to meet the Net Zero by 2050 aim, and how that could change cost and supply.
How do ammonia based fuels relate to shipping?
Ammonia is a gas with no carbon in it, and it is one of the fuels at the centre of the race to build new ships. 311 data rates it as Watch, with wide use not expected until 2055, so timing is a real risk.
How does ship scrapping relate to this session?
Matthew covered ship breakers as part of the shift. 311 data says decarbonisation rules and a new global treaty could drive more ship recycling, so retiring old vessels becomes a bigger part of fleet planning.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
Through a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector, in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Whole industries could be disrupted in a day.
The Future of Exponential Disruption looks at the forces accelerating global disruption, and how close we are to disrupting whole industries in a day. Shipping, facing a fleet replacement on a tight deadline, is a live example.
