Futurists are training AI to predict the future and make them redundant
Lots of people and companies want to be able to predict the future, for a whole variety of different reasons, so will this new approach work? Only time, ironically, will tell.
Key takeaways
- The aim, in the short term at least, is to make more accurate forecasts by combining AI and Human Intelligence (HI), instead of just relying on humans alone.
- Largely, the project's predictions so far have been on point.
- For instance, USC ISI's research assistant Fred Morstatter said that non-experts made the correct predictions that in April North Korea would launch a missile test before July - they did so in May.
Cite or link to this article
Griffin, M. (2020) 'Futurists are training AI to predict the future and make them redundant', 311 Institute, 9 October. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/futurists-are-training-ai-to-predict-the-future-and-make-them-redundant/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).
DARPA recently unveiled a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) project to analyse and track "threats" at a global scale in order to predict future terrorist attacks and wars, and more, and now researchers from the University of Southern California's (USC) Viterbi Information Sciences Institute (ISI) are working hard on being able to predict the future. Imagine knowing when an earthquake was going to hit a region a month in advance, or what the daily closing price of the Nikkei would be at the end of the week… or what route back from work was going to be clear on a Friday afternoon. Awesome.
Life would be a very different place, and that's exactly what the USC team has been working on by combining AI and good old human predicting – like the kind I do.
Aram Galstyan and his team at USC ISI have been working on the Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events (SAGE) project for two years, in a way to predict the future without needing any of those know-it-all futurists that you seem to find lurking everywhere.
However, while the team is trying to make futurists redundant, until that day SAGE relies on human participants interacting with its machine learning tools to make predictions on future events. The aim, in the short term at least, is to make more accurate forecasts by combining AI and Human Intelligence (HI), instead of just relying on humans alone.
Largely, the project's predictions so far have been on point. For instance, USC ISI's research assistant Fred Morstatter said that non-experts made the correct predictions that in April North Korea would launch a missile test before July - they did so in May.
"Thanks to the machine models we have in our system," Morstatter said. "Forecasters are doing better than the control system which only has human forecasters."
The SAGE predictions appear to be working well so far, and the team has been able to show how machine intelligence and human decision-making can predict outcomes better than humans alone, but whether it will truly ever get to a point where it replaces human forecasters and futurists, well we’ll see – and we’ll give it a run for its money!
FAQ
Why does this matter?
Lots of people and companies want to be able to predict the future, for a whole variety of different reasons, so will this new approach work? Only time, ironically, will tell.
About the author
Matthew Griffin Founder, 311 Institute
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."
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Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 15-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder and Futurist in Chief of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.
An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity program, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.
As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.
Regularly featured in the global media including the AP, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, Discovery, Forbes, Khaleej Times, Telegraph, TIME, ViacomCBS, WIRED, and the WSJ, Matthews mission is to help organisations create a fair and sustainable future whose benefits are shared by everyone irrespective of their ability, background, or circumstances.
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Sources and further reading
- University of Southern California's viterbischool.usc.edu
- Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events ijcai.org
- 2020 03 humans artificial intelligence future techxplore.com
Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 9 October 2020. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2020). Futurists are training AI to predict the future and make them redundant. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/futurists-are-training-ai-to-predict-the-future-and-make-them-redundant/
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