Matthew GriffinFounder, President and Futurist, 311 Institute
G7 · G20governments advised
850+keynotes
102countries
17codexes
Energy and sustainability sessions forUnited NationsBureau of International RecyclingAVEVAAditya Birla GroupSUEZManagement Events
Featured inBloombergThe Wall Street JournalThe Telegraph
Paul and Dana at AZ China asked Matthew to give the keynote at their annual Aluminium summit. The event is normally held in China but, because of COVID-19, was once again held virtually.
He started with the case for heavy industry. The world uses huge quantities of aluminium, concrete, steel and other products in buildings, infrastructure, packaging and vehicles. Built on foundations and processes that are over a century old, the industry accounts for 7% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet new alloys also hold the key to lighter aircraft, robots and spacecraft, and to new architectural possibilities.
"New Creative Machines from companies like Toyota are helping design new alloys 200x faster than previous methods."Matthew Griffin, Virtual, November 2021
Matthew showed how Creative Machines from companies such as Toyota are helping design new alloys 200x faster than previous methods. He looked at the future of transport and the debate between battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, and at new energy and manufacturing processes that will help the industry decarbonise quickly while driving the debate about the aluminium casting, powder, scrap and sheet markets.
His closing theme was that an old industry, some would say ancient, has started its journey. Hydrogen, solar and even floating mini nuclear reactors can help decarbonise it, and while modernisation will take a while, it is under way.
311 Intelligence
What this means for your leadership team
Old processes carry the emissions.
The industry is built on foundations and processes more than a century old, and it accounts for 7% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Anyone who buys aluminium, steel or concrete shares that exposure. Our Heavy Industry Leaving Europe trend, rated Act now with wide use by 2027, shows how energy costs and tariffs are already pushing manufacturers to move production abroad.
Design speed changes the alloy race.
Creative Machines are helping design new alloys 200x faster than previous methods. Our trend rating is Prepare, with wide use by 2028. Teams that depend on lighter aircraft, robots, spacecraft or new building designs should expect materials choices to shift faster than their planning cycles.
Clean energy routes are still maturing.
Hydrogen, solar and even floating mini nuclear reactors can help decarbonise the industry. Hydrogen Fuels and Fuel Cells are at readiness level 9, yet our wide use date for both is 2045. Aluminium Air Batteries sit at level 6. Modernisation will take a while, but it is under way.
Three questions for your next leadership meeting
Which of our metals suppliers have a credible plan to decarbonise?
Where would faster alloy design change our products or costs?
Which clean energy route fits our sites, and when?
The trends and technologies behind this session
From the 311 Starburst, the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit’s map of the technologies and trends shaping the next 50 years.
What does this session mean for organisations that rely on metals?
Metals supply is tied to an industry with 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions and processes over a century old. Organisations should expect pressure on cost, sourcing and product design as that industry changes, and should plan for it now rather than wait.
How does the Creative Machines trend relate to aluminium?
Creative Machines are AI that designs products, proteins and media. In this session they were shown designing new alloys 200x faster than previous methods. We rate the trend Prepare, with wide use by 2028.
How do Hydrogen Fuels relate to decarbonising metals?
Hydrogen was named as one route to decarbonise heavy industry. Hydrogen fuels are at readiness level 9, with first products in 2014, but we expect wide use only by 2045. Leaders should treat it as a long-term option to watch.
How can 311 brief our leadership team on this?
We offer a private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. We work in person first.
Bring this to your leadership teamA private executive briefing or leadership workshop, tailored to your sector. In person first, anywhere in the world.
Analysis by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit, from Matthew Griffin’s session and 311 data.
If Matthew gave this session today
Creative machines could become the dominant creative force.
This codex explores what happens when creative machines, not humans, lead creativity, a shift Matthew showed is already at work in the design of new aluminium alloys.
