Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists
Machines can already do 5% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 34%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 5% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2040, and 34% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 289,960 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $61,770 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 68% for contact with people.
- Also called: Bus Mechanic, Diesel Mechanic, Diesel Technician (Diesel Tech), Fleet Mechanic.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perform routine maintenance such as changing oil, checking batteries, and lubricating equipment and machinery | 14% | 3% to 30% | |
| Inspect brake systems, steering mechanisms, wheel bearings, and other important parts to ensure that they are in proper operating condition | 9% | 3% to 30% | |
| Adjust and reline brakes, align wheels, tighten bolts and screws, and reassemble equipment | 9% | 3% to 30% | |
| Inspect, test, and listen to defective equipment to diagnose malfunctions, using test instruments such as handheld computers, motor analyzers, chassis charts, or pressure gauges | 9% | 3% to 30% | |
| Disassemble and overhaul internal combustion engines, pumps, generators, transmissions, clutches, and differential units | 8% | 3% to 30% | |
| Use handtools, such as screwdrivers, pliers, wrenches, pressure gauges, or precision instruments, as well as power tools, such as pneumatic wrenches, lathes, welding equipment, or jacks and hoists | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Adjust or repair computer controlled exhaust emissions devices | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Attach test instruments to equipment, and read dials and gauges to diagnose malfunctions | 4% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
This job is already among the lowest risk for its skill shape.
What should you do about it?
Open this job in the Workforce Starburst to see it for your country, then use these to act on it.
Watch This Job
Get told when the outlook for this job changes.
Free planSkills to learn next
The skills that make this job, or the next one, last longer.
In the StarburstCheck your readiness
Ten quick questions on how ready you are.
FreeAsk Vantage
Ask what this job means for you and get a sourced answer.
Free to askFutures Academy courses
Courses matched to your gaps.
Coming soonPay trend
Where pay for this job is heading.
Coming soonTeam plan
Every role in your team, side by side, with a plan for each.
Pro and CorporateShared workspace
Work through it with your team, with notes and decisions kept.
Pro and Corporate
Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2040. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists?
Machines can do 5% of the tasks of bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists today and 34% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 49-3031.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/bus-and-truck-mechanics-and-diesel-engine-specialists/