Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
Machines can already do 29% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 70%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 29% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 70% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 159,240 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $59,050 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 78% for contact with people.
- Also called: Bus Driver, Bus Operator, Charter Bus Driver, Coach Operator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride | 65% | 30% to 75% | |
| Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board | 8% | 30% to 75% | |
| Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure | 6% | 3% to 30% | |
| Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes | 4% | 20% to 60% | |
| Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers | 4% | 50% to 85% | |
| Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book | 3% | 70% to 95% | |
| Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach | 3% | 3% to 30% | |
| Announce stops to passengers | 1% | 35% to 58% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills bus drivers, transit and intercity use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Highway Maintenance Workers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,260
- Library Assistants, Clerical62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $36,910
- Funeral Attendants53% of tasks by 2035 · US median $35,680
- Flight Attendants55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $63,580
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of bus drivers, transit and intercity?
Machines can do 29% of the tasks of bus drivers, transit and intercity today and 70% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-3052.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/bus-drivers-transit-and-intercity/