Carpenters
Machines can already do 20% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 56%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Carpenters in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 20% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 56% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 670,090 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $60,580 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 78% for contact with people.
- Also called: Bridge Carpenter, Cabinet Maker, Carpentry Construction Specialist, Concrete Carpenter.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws | 11% | 20% to 60% | |
| Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools | 11% | 3% to 30% | |
| Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue | 11% | 20% to 60% | |
| Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Build or repair cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors, or other wooden fixtures used in buildings, using woodworking machines, carpenter's hand tools, or power tools | 5% | 20% to 60% | |
| Install rough door and window frames, subflooring, fixtures, or temporary supports in structures undergoing construction or repair | 5% | 20% to 60% | |
| Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required | 5% | 55% to 85% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills carpenters use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $63,800
- Electricians50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $63,190
- Solar Photovoltaic Installers51% of tasks by 2035 · US median $53,140
- Helpers--Electricians55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $42,670
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Carpenters?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of carpenters?
Machines can do 20% of the tasks of carpenters today and 56% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 47-2031.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Carpenters: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/carpenters/