Commercial Pilots
Machines can already do 25% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 52%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Commercial Pilots in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 25% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2035, and 52% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 47,630 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $123,220 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 74% for contact with people.
- Also called: Captain, Charter Pilot, Check Airman, Commercial Helicopter Pilot.
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures | 20% | 27% to 64% | |
| Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights | 12% | 36% to 68% | |
| Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly | 7% | 3% to 25% | |
| Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments | 7% | 36% to 64% | |
| Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes | 6% | 50% to 72% | |
| Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment | 5% | 27% to 46% | |
| Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations | 5% | 3% to 25% | |
| Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor | 4% | 27% to 64% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills commercial pilots use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much commercial pilots rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, medium confidence.
- Go-to problem solver8/10
- Trust and reliability10/10
- Know-how about the organisation7/10
- Network and relationships5/10
- Mentoring and developing others3/10
- Culture and morale6/10
- Initiative beyond the role6/10
- Calm in a crisis10/10
- Bridge between teams4/10
- Reputation and influence5/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers46% of tasks by 2035 · US median $232,140
- Tree Trimmers and Pruners46% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,960
- Police Identification and Records Officers48% of tasks by 2035 · US median $93,790
- Animal Control Workers44% of tasks by 2035 · US median $45,660
What should you do about it?
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Commercial Pilots?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2035. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of commercial pilots?
Machines can do 25% of the tasks of commercial pilots today and 52% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-2012.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, medium confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Commercial Pilots: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/commercial-pilots/