First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators
Machines can already do 32% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 61%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 32% of this job's tasks.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2031, and 61% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Contact with people: it scores 87% for contact with people.
- Also called: Cargo Manager, DC Supervisor (Distribution Center Supervisor), Dock Supervisor, Driver Manager.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monitor field work to ensure proper performance and use of materials | 9% | 40% to 80% | |
| Direct workers in transportation or related services, such as pumping, moving, storing, or loading or unloading of materials | 9% | 10% to 27% | |
| Confer with customers, supervisors, contractors, or other personnel to exchange information or to resolve problems | 8% | 10% to 27% | |
| Plan work assignments and equipment allocations to meet transportation, operations or production goals | 8% | 40% to 75% | |
| Review orders, production schedules, blueprints, or shipping or receiving notices to determine work sequences and material shipping dates, types, volumes, or destinations | 7% | 55% to 85% | |
| Drive vehicles or operate machines or equipment to complete work assignments or to assist workers | 7% | 30% to 75% | |
| Enforce safety rules and regulations | 6% | 10% to 27% | |
| Resolve worker problems or collaborate with employees to assist in problem resolution | 6% | 10% to 27% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills first-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle operators use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Postmasters and Mail Superintendents48% of tasks by 2035 · US median $96,660
- Farm Labor Contractors49% of tasks by 2035 · US median $58,460
- Dietetic Technicians58% of tasks by 2035 · US median $37,640
- Chief Procurement Officers56% of tasks by 2035
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2031. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of first-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle operators?
Machines can do 32% of the tasks of first-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle operators today and 61% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-1043.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-material-moving-machine-and-vehicle-operators/