First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
Machines can already do 33% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 62%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 33% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2031, and 62% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 673,430 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $74,450 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 76% for contact with people.
- Also called: Assembly Supervisor, Line Supervisor, Manufacturing Supervisor, Molding Supervisor.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators | 14% | 10% to 27% | |
| Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards | 9% | 40% to 80% | |
| Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs | 8% | 55% to 85% | |
| Enforce safety and sanitation regulations | 7% | 10% to 40% | |
| Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals | 7% | 40% to 75% | |
| Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments | 7% | 30% to 54% | |
| Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results | 6% | 70% to 95% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills first-line supervisors of production and operating workers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers56% of tasks by 2035 · US median $44,080
- General and Operations Managers49% of tasks by 2035 · US median $105,770
- Food Service Managers60% of tasks by 2035 · US median $69,390
- Cooks, Restaurant59% of tasks by 2035 · US median $37,390
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2031. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of first-line supervisors of production and operating workers?
Machines can do 33% of the tasks of first-line supervisors of production and operating workers today and 62% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 51-1011.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers/