Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
Machines can already do 20% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 53%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 20% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 2% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 53% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 409,670 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $61,010 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 70% for contact with people.
- Also called: AC Mechanic (Air Conditioner Mechanic), AC Tech (Air Conditioning Technician), HVAC Control Tech (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Control Technician), HVAC Installer (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Installer).
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring | 13% | 3% to 30% | |
| Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters | 9% | 20% to 60% | |
| Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions | 8% | 20% to 60% | |
| Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions | 6% | 30% to 54% | |
| Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment | 5% | 20% to 60% | |
| Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders | 4% | 70% to 95% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial and Industrial Equipment50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $74,090
- Manufactured Building and Mobile Home Installers41% of tasks by 2035 · US median $45,990
- Solar Photovoltaic Installers51% of tasks by 2035 · US median $53,140
- Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $84,890
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers?
Machines can do 20% of the tasks of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers today and 53% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 49-9021.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers/