Light Truck Drivers
Machines can already do 40% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 80%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Light Truck Drivers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 40% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2030, and 80% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 983,300 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $44,860 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 71% for contact with people.
- Also called: Bulk Delivery Driver, Delivery Driver, Driver, Light Truck Driver.
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drive vehicles with capacities under three tons to transport materials to and from specified destinations, such as railroad stations, plants, residences, offices, or within industrial yards | 41% | 45% to 85% | |
| Load and unload trucks, vans, or automobiles | 23% | 30% to 75% | |
| Obey traffic laws and follow established traffic and transportation procedures | 6% | 45% to 85% | |
| Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers | 6% | 30% to 75% | |
| Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions | 6% | 42% to 72% | |
| Inspect and maintain vehicle supplies and equipment, such as gas, oil, water, tires, lights, or brakes, to ensure that vehicles are in proper working condition | 5% | 30% to 75% | |
| Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations | 5% | 70% to 95% | |
| Present bills and receipts and collect payments for goods delivered or loaded | 4% | 50% to 85% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills light truck drivers use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much light truck drivers rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, low confidence.
- Go-to problem solver3/10
- Trust and reliability6/10
- Know-how about the organisation3/10
- Network and relationships4/10
- Mentoring and developing others1/10
- Culture and morale3/10
- Initiative beyond the role2/10
- Calm in a crisis4/10
- Bridge between teams2/10
- Reputation and influence1/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Stockers and Order Fillers65% of tasks by 2035 · US median $37,330
- Postal Service Mail Carriers63% of tasks by 2035 · US median $60,550
- Couriers and Messengers72% of tasks by 2035 · US median $39,200
- Transportation Inspectors66% of tasks by 2035 · US median $92,100
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Light Truck Drivers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2030. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of light truck drivers?
Machines can do 40% of the tasks of light truck drivers today and 80% by 2035. Most of the routine work moves to machines, and the people in the job move to oversight, judgement and client work.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-3033.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, low confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Light Truck Drivers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/light-truck-drivers/