Locomotive Engineers
Machines can already do 32% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 71%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Locomotive Engineers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 32% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2031, and 71% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 33,470 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $81,410 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 67% for contact with people.
- Also called: Engineer, Passenger Locomotive Engineer, Railroad Engineer, Steam Locomotive Engineer.
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operate locomotives to transport freight or passengers between stations or to assemble or disassemble trains within rail yards | 22% | 30% to 75% | |
| Receive starting signals from conductors and use controls such as throttles or air brakes to drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas turbine-electric locomotives | 17% | 30% to 75% | |
| Observe tracks to detect obstructions | 13% | 40% to 80% | |
| Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives | 11% | 30% to 60% | |
| Monitor gauges or meters that measure speed, amperage, battery charge, or air pressure in brake lines or in main reservoirs | 9% | 40% to 80% | |
| Confer with conductors or traffic control center personnel via radiophones to issue or receive information concerning stops, delays, or oncoming trains | 9% | 30% to 60% | |
| Inspect locomotives to verify adequate fuel, sand, water, or other supplies before each run or to check for mechanical problems | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Call out train signals to assistants to verify meanings | 3% | 25% to 55% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills locomotive engineers use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much locomotive engineers rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, low confidence.
- Go-to problem solver6/10
- Trust and reliability9/10
- Know-how about the organisation6/10
- Network and relationships4/10
- Mentoring and developing others2/10
- Culture and morale4/10
- Initiative beyond the role3/10
- Calm in a crisis10/10
- Bridge between teams3/10
- Reputation and influence3/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining60% of tasks by 2035 · US median $74,500
- Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators70% of tasks by 2035 · US median $59,850
- Wellhead Pumpers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $69,960
- Crane and Tower Operators61% of tasks by 2035 · US median $68,080
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Locomotive Engineers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2031. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of locomotive engineers?
Machines can do 32% of the tasks of locomotive engineers today and 71% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-4011.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, low confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Locomotive Engineers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/locomotive-engineers/