Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric
Machines can already do 16% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 37%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 16% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2040, and 37% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 8,950 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $300,080 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 97% for contact with people.
- Also called: Clinical Ophthalmologist, Cornea Specialist, Glaucoma Specialist, Oculoplastic Specialist.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perform comprehensive examinations of the visual system to determine the nature or extent of ocular disorders | 18% | 3% to 25% | |
| Perform ophthalmic surgeries such as cataract, glaucoma, refractive, corneal, vitro-retinal, eye muscle, or oculoplastic surgeries | 14% | 3% to 25% | |
| Diagnose or treat injuries, disorders, or diseases of the eye and eye structures including the cornea, sclera, conjunctiva, or eyelids | 11% | 3% to 25% | |
| Document or evaluate patients' medical histories | 9% | 64% to 81% | |
| Perform, order, or interpret the results of diagnostic or clinical tests | 8% | 3% to 25% | |
| Provide or direct the provision of postoperative care | 6% | 3% to 25% | |
| Prescribe or administer topical or systemic medications to treat ophthalmic conditions and to manage pain | 6% | 3% to 25% | |
| Develop treatment plans based on patients' histories and goals, the nature and severity of disorders, and treatment risks and benefits | 6% | 32% to 55% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills ophthalmologists, except pediatric use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Veterinarians36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $130,100
- Optometrists35% of tasks by 2035 · US median $136,570
- Podiatrists36% of tasks by 2035 · US median $160,300
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2040. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of ophthalmologists, except pediatric?
Machines can do 16% of the tasks of ophthalmologists, except pediatric today and 37% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1241.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/ophthalmologists-except-pediatric/