Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
Machines can already do 30% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 68%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 30% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 68% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 41,820 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $53,340 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 68% for contact with people.
- Also called: Asphalt Paver Operator, Asphalt Paving Machine Operator, Asphalt Raker, Asphalt Roller Operator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start machine, engage clutch, and push and move levers to guide machine along forms or guidelines and to control the operation of machine attachments | 14% | 45% to 85% | |
| Operate machines to spread, smooth, level, or steel-reinforce stone, concrete, or asphalt on road beds | 12% | 45% to 85% | |
| Inspect, clean, maintain, and repair equipment, using mechanics' hand tools, or report malfunctions to supervisors | 9% | 3% to 30% | |
| Observe distribution of paving material to adjust machine settings or material flow, and indicate low spots for workers to add material | 8% | 30% to 75% | |
| Operate tamping machines or manually roll surfaces to compact earth fills, foundation forms, and finished road materials, according to grade specifications | 8% | 45% to 85% | |
| Control paving machines to push dump trucks and to maintain a constant flow of asphalt or other material into hoppers or screeds | 7% | 45% to 85% | |
| Set up and tear down equipment | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Operate oil distributors, loaders, chip spreaders, dump trucks, and snow plows | 6% | 30% to 75% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $61,290
- Boilermakers59% of tasks by 2035 · US median $76,410
- Crane and Tower Operators61% of tasks by 2035 · US median $68,080
- Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners56% of tasks by 2035 · US median $49,880
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators?
Machines can do 30% of the tasks of paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators today and 68% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 47-2071.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/paving-surfacing-and-tamping-equipment-operators/