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US job code 19-2012Very high change by 2035

Physicists

Machines can already do 56% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 82%. Most of the work is changing now.

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Share of the work machines can do

Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050

100%75%50%25%20262035205056%

Physicists in 2026: the short answer

  • Today: machines can do 56% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 27% of them.
  • Forecast: machines can already do half of its tasks, and 82% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
  • Size: 20,430 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $172,250 a year.
  • Contact with people: it scores 56% for contact with people.
  • Also called: Astrophysicist, Biophysics Scientist, Health Physicist, Medical Physicist.
  • Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.

Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.

Machines can do today
56%of the tasks, 2026
By 2035
82%of the tasks
US median pay
$172,250a year, May 2025
US jobs
20k20,430 people
Contact with people
56%how people-facing
Step 1AnticipateWhat is changing? Free to everyone

How the work changes, task by task

The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.

TaskShare of the dayMachines can do2026 to 2035
Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers14%
84% to 97%
Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena12%
60% to 90%
Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences10%
70% to 95%
Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena10%
20% to 60%
Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood8%
81% to 97%
Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms7%
70% to 95%
Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures7%
30% to 60%
Write research proposals to receive funding7%
70% to 95%
Step 2AssessWhy should I care? Free to everyone

The skills this job runs on

The skills physicists use most, most used first.

Analysis and dataLearning aptitude and mindsetCreative and innovative thinkingEngineering designIT and softwareResearch methodsCommunicationInterdisciplinary thinkingProfessionalism and work ethicTeaching and trainingCritical thinking and problem solvingMoral intelligence and integrityAdaptability and resilienceSelf-managementCollaborationEmotional intelligenceEntrepreneurial mindsetInterpersonal skillsLeadership

Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace

How much physicists rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, medium confidence.

  • Go-to problem solver9/10
  • Trust and reliability7/10
  • Know-how about the organisation5/10
  • Network and relationships5/10
  • Mentoring and developing others6/10
  • Culture and morale5/10
  • Initiative beyond the role7/10
  • Calm in a crisis6/10
  • Bridge between teams5/10
  • Reputation and influence5/10

Safer jobs nearby

Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.

Step 3ActWhat do I do about it? Free plan and up
What do I do about it

What should you do about it?

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Questions

When will machines do half of the tasks of Physicists?

Machines can already do half of its tasks. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.

Will AI take the job of physicists?

Machines can do 56% of the tasks of physicists today and 82% by 2035. Most of the routine work moves to machines, and the people in the job move to oversight, judgement and client work.

Sources and citing

Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 19-2012.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, medium confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.

Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Physicists: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/physicists/