Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists
Machines can already do 34% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 55%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 34% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2033, and 55% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 89,390 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $66,270 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 87% for contact with people.
- Also called: Adult Probation Officer, Correctional Counselor, Deputy Probation Officer (DPO), Juvenile Probation Officer.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prepare and maintain case folder for each assigned inmate or offender | 13% | 63% to 81% | |
| Interview probationers and parolees regularly to evaluate their progress in accomplishing goals and maintaining the terms specified in their probation contracts and rehabilitation plans | 13% | 50% to 72% | |
| Supervise people on community-based sentences, such as electronically monitored home detention, and provide field supervision of probationers by conducting curfew checks or visits to home, work, or school | 11% | 3% to 25% | |
| Conduct prehearing and presentencing investigations and testify in court regarding offenders' backgrounds and recommended sentences and sentencing conditions | 7% | 40% to 64% | |
| Write reports describing offenders' progress | 6% | 63% to 81% | |
| Gather information about offenders' backgrounds by talking to offenders, their families and friends, and other people who have relevant information | 5% | 50% to 72% | |
| Investigate alleged parole violations, using interviews, surveillance, and search and seizure | 5% | 3% to 25% | |
| Recommend remedial action or initiate court action in response to noncompliance with terms of probation or parole | 5% | 32% to 50% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills probation officers and correctional treatment specialists use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Patient Representatives49% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,290
- Social and Human Service Assistants52% of tasks by 2035 · US median $45,930
- Speech-Language Pathology Assistants50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $48,430
- Psychiatric Technicians32% of tasks by 2035 · US median $45,130
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2033. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of probation officers and correctional treatment specialists?
Machines can do 34% of the tasks of probation officers and correctional treatment specialists today and 55% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 21-1092.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/probation-officers-and-correctional-treatment-specialists/