Rail Car Repairers
Machines can already do 11% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 40%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Rail Car Repairers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 11% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2038, and 40% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 21,350 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $67,530 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 68% for contact with people.
- Also called: Freight Maintenance Specialist, Locomotive Repairman, Rail Car Maintenance Mechanic, Rail Car Mechanic.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repair or replace defective or worn parts such as bearings, pistons, and gears, using hand tools, torque wrenches, power tools, and welding equipment | 18% | 3% to 30% | |
| Inspect components such as bearings, seals, gaskets, wheels, and coupler assemblies to determine if repairs are needed | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Remove locomotives, car mechanical units, or other components, using pneumatic hoists and jacks, pinch bars, hand tools, and cutting torches | 10% | 3% to 30% | |
| Inspect the interior and exterior of rail cars coming into rail yards to identify defects and to determine the extent of wear and damage | 8% | 3% to 30% | |
| Record conditions of cars, and repair and maintenance work performed or to be performed | 7% | 70% to 95% | |
| Perform scheduled maintenance, and clean units and components | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Repair, fabricate, and install steel or wood fittings, using blueprints, shop sketches, and instruction manuals | 6% | 3% to 30% | |
| Test units for operability before and after repairs | 5% | 3% to 30% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills rail car repairers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners34% of tasks by 2035 · US median $46,420
What should you do about it?
Open this job in the Workforce Starburst to see it for your country, then use these to act on it.
Watch This Job
Get told when the outlook for this job changes.
Free planSkills to learn next
The skills that make this job, or the next one, last longer.
In the StarburstCheck your readiness
Ten quick questions on how ready you are.
FreeAsk Vantage
Ask what this job means for you and get a sourced answer.
Free to askFutures Academy courses
Courses matched to your gaps.
Coming soonPay trend
Where pay for this job is heading.
Coming soonTeam plan
Every role in your team, side by side, with a plan for each.
Pro and CorporateShared workspace
Work through it with your team, with notes and decisions kept.
Pro and Corporate
Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Rail Car Repairers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2038. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of rail car repairers?
Machines can do 11% of the tasks of rail car repairers today and 40% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 49-3043.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Rail Car Repairers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/rail-car-repairers/