Sailors and Marine Oilers
Machines can already do 20% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 57%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Sailors and Marine Oilers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 20% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 57% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 31,670 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $51,520 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 70% for contact with people.
- Also called: AB Seaman (Able Bodied Seaman), AB Watchman (Able Bodied Watchman), Able Seaman, Deck Hand.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stand watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids, such as buoys or lighthouses | 10% | 40% to 80% | |
| Handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to other vessels, or to rig towing lines | 8% | 20% to 60% | |
| Sweep, mop, and wash down decks to remove oil, dirt, and debris, using brooms, mops, brushes, and hoses | 8% | 20% to 60% | |
| Paint or varnish decks, superstructures, lifeboats, or sides of ships | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Steer ships under the direction of commanders or navigating officers or direct helmsmen to steer, following designated courses | 7% | 45% to 85% | |
| Tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically during voyages and disconnecting them when destinations are reached | 7% | 3% to 30% | |
| Chip and clean rust spots on decks, superstructures, or sides of ships, using wire brushes and hand or air chipping machines | 6% | 20% to 60% | |
| Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels | 5% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills sailors and marine oilers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Funeral Attendants53% of tasks by 2035 · US median $35,680
- Tree Trimmers and Pruners46% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,960
- Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers52% of tasks by 2035 · US median $38,150
- Morticians, Undertakers, and Funeral Arrangers52% of tasks by 2035 · US median $55,010
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Sailors and Marine Oilers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of sailors and marine oilers?
Machines can do 20% of the tasks of sailors and marine oilers today and 57% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-5011.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Sailors and Marine Oilers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/sailors-and-marine-oilers/