Scenario Planners
Machines can already do 42% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 74%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Scenario Planners in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 42% of this job's tasks.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2029, and 74% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Contact with people: it scores 64% for contact with people.
- Also called: Scenario Planning Manager, Scenario Strategist, Scenario Analyst, Scenario Planning Consultant.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Build scenario frameworks and write detailed, plausible stories for each future | 16% | 38% to 70% | |
| Identify the critical uncertainties and driving forces that shape an organisation's future | 15% | 42% to 72% | |
| Stress-test strategies, plans and investments against each scenario | 13% | 35% to 68% | |
| Model how each scenario would affect demand, costs, risks and capacity | 12% | 55% to 88% | |
| Run scenario workshops and war games with leaders and experts | 12% | 28% to 58% | |
| Define signposts and early-warning indicators, and track them | 10% | 48% to 82% | |
| Present scenario findings and recommendations to decision-makers | 10% | 38% to 70% | |
| Update scenarios as conditions change | 6% | 45% to 80% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills scenario planners use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Heads of Foresight55% of tasks by 2035
- Chief AI Officers68% of tasks by 2035
- Chief Technology Officers60% of tasks by 2035
- Chief Futurists63% of tasks by 2035
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Scenario Planners?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2029. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of scenario planners?
Machines can do 42% of the tasks of scenario planners today and 74% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 311-F949 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Scenario Planners: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/scenario-planners/