Software Developers
Machines can already do 51% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 76%. Most of the work is changing now.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Software Developers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 51% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 29% of them.
- Forecast: machines can already do half of its tasks, and 76% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 1,687,890 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $135,980 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 41% for contact with people.
- Also called: Application Developer, Application Integration Engineer, Developer, DevOps Engineer (Development Operations Engineer).
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design | 23% | 43% to 73% | |
| Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance | 18% | 71% to 91% | |
| Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation | 10% | 30% to 58% | |
| Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems and to obtain information on project limitations and capabilities, performance requirements and interfaces | 8% | 30% to 60% | |
| Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints | 6% | 80% to 97% | |
| Prepare reports or correspondence concerning project specifications, activities, or status | 5% | 75% to 95% | |
| Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system | 5% | 78% to 97% | |
| Consult with customers or other departments on project status, proposals, or technical issues, such as software system design or maintenance | 5% | 67% to 87% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills software developers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Information Security Engineers67% of tasks by 2035 · US median $116,580
- Blockchain Engineers72% of tasks by 2035 · US median $116,580
- Computer Systems Engineers/Architects71% of tasks by 2035 · US median $116,580
- Computer and Information Systems Managers65% of tasks by 2035 · US median $175,140
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Software Developers?
Machines can already do half of its tasks. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of software developers?
Machines can do 51% of the tasks of software developers today and 76% by 2035. Most of the routine work moves to machines, and the people in the job move to oversight, judgement and client work.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 15-1252.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Software Developers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/software-developers/