Substitute Teachers, Short-Term
Machines can already do 24% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 51%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Substitute Teachers, Short-Term in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 24% of this job's tasks.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2035, and 51% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 524,770 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $41,670 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 61% for contact with people.
- Also called: Building Sub (Building Substitute), Building Sub Teacher (Building Substitute Teacher), Child Development Sub Teacher (Child Development Substitute Teacher), ESL Sub (English as a Second Language Substitute).
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teach a variety of subjects, such as English, mathematics, and social studies | 27% | 22% to 47% | |
| Enforce school and class rules to maintain order in the classroom | 13% | 36% to 68% | |
| Follow lesson plans designed by absent teachers | 10% | 22% to 47% | |
| Answer students' questions | 6% | 22% to 47% | |
| Supervise students during activities outside the classroom, such as recess, lunch, and field trips | 6% | 3% to 25% | |
| Tutor or assist students individually or in small groups | 6% | 22% to 47% | |
| Take class attendance and maintain attendance records | 4% | 63% to 81% | |
| Distribute or collect tests or homework assignments | 4% | 18% to 51% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills substitute teachers, short-term use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much substitute teachers, short-term rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, low confidence.
- Go-to problem solver3/10
- Trust and reliability9/10
- Know-how about the organisation5/10
- Network and relationships5/10
- Mentoring and developing others8/10
- Culture and morale7/10
- Initiative beyond the role4/10
- Calm in a crisis7/10
- Bridge between teams4/10
- Reputation and influence2/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $38,140
- Teaching Assistants, Special Education41% of tasks by 2035
- Self-Enrichment Teachers43% of tasks by 2035 · US median $46,800
- Nannies42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $34,980
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2035. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of substitute teachers, short-term?
Machines can do 24% of the tasks of substitute teachers, short-term today and 51% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 25-3031.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, low confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Substitute Teachers, Short-Term: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/substitute-teachers-short-term/