Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
Machines can already do 21% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 49%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 21% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2036, and 49% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 15,780 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $40,710 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 66% for contact with people.
- Also called: Basketball Referee, Diving Judge, Dressage Judge, Football Referee.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Officiate at sporting events, games, or competitions, to maintain standards of play and to ensure that game rules are observed | 37% | 3% to 30% | |
| Signal participants or other officials to make them aware of infractions or to otherwise regulate play or competition | 9% | 25% to 55% | |
| Resolve claims of rule infractions or complaints by participants and assess any necessary penalties, according to regulations | 6% | 25% to 55% | |
| Teach and explain the rules and regulations governing a specific sport | 6% | 15% to 40% | |
| Confer with other sporting officials, coaches, players, and facility managers to provide information, coordinate activities, and discuss problems | 6% | 25% to 55% | |
| Judge performances in sporting competitions to award points, impose scoring penalties, and determine results | 6% | 25% to 55% | |
| Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary | 6% | 25% to 55% | |
| Inspect game sites for compliance with regulations or safety requirements | 3% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills umpires, referees, and other sports officials use most, most used first.
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Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2036. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of umpires, referees, and other sports officials?
Machines can do 21% of the tasks of umpires, referees, and other sports officials today and 49% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 27-2023.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/umpires-referees-and-other-sports-officials/