Upholsterers
Machines can already do 11% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 40%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Upholsterers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 11% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2038, and 40% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 20,140 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $46,340 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 59% for contact with people.
- Also called: Box Spring Upholsterer, Furniture Upholsterer, Inside Upholsterer, Sofa Back Upholsterer.
- Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement, or staples | 20% | 3% to 30% | |
| Measure and cut new covering materials, using patterns and measuring and cutting instruments, following sketches and design specifications | 9% | 20% to 60% | |
| Operate sewing machines or sew upholstery by hand to seam cushions and join various sections of covering material | 9% | 3% to 30% | |
| Remove covering, webbing, padding, or defective springs from workpieces, using hand tools such as hammers and tack pullers | 8% | 3% to 30% | |
| Build furniture up with loose fiber stuffing, cotton, felt, or foam padding to form smooth, rounded surfaces | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Make, restore, or create custom upholstered furniture, using hand tools and knowledge of fabrics and upholstery methods | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Adjust or replace webbing, padding, or springs, and secure them in place | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Discuss upholstery fabrics, colors, and styles with customers, and provide cost estimates | 5% | 28% to 58% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills upholsterers use most, most used first.
Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace
How much upholsterers rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, low confidence.
- Go-to problem solver3/10
- Trust and reliability5/10
- Know-how about the organisation3/10
- Network and relationships3/10
- Mentoring and developing others2/10
- Culture and morale3/10
- Initiative beyond the role2/10
- Calm in a crisis4/10
- Bridge between teams2/10
- Reputation and influence1/10
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
This job is already among the lowest risk for its skill shape.
What should you do about it?
Open this job in the Workforce Starburst to see it for your country, then use these to act on it.
Watch This Job
Get told when the outlook for this job changes.
Free planSkills to learn next
The skills that make this job, or the next one, last longer.
In the StarburstCheck your readiness
Ten quick questions on how ready you are.
FreeAsk Vantage
Ask what this job means for you and get a sourced answer.
Free to askFutures Academy courses
Courses matched to your gaps.
Coming soonPay trend
Where pay for this job is heading.
Coming soonTeam plan
Every role in your team, side by side, with a plan for each.
Pro and CorporateShared workspace
Work through it with your team, with notes and decisions kept.
Pro and Corporate
Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Upholsterers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2038. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of upholsterers?
Machines can do 11% of the tasks of upholsterers today and 40% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 51-6093.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, low confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Upholsterers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/upholsterers/