The 311 Prediction Benchmark
Rounds 7 and 8: our forecasts are locked
Our Round 7 and Round 8 forecasts are locked. We publish a fingerprint of every forecast now and will reveal all 500 after marking in early December, including the ones we get wrong. Anyone can check them with SHA-256.
What is locked
- Locked
- 4 November 2026, 02:10 UTC
- Published
- 6 November 2026, 16:31 UTC
- Reveal
- After marking, early December 2026
How to check us
- Download the commitments file below. Each numbered line holds one fingerprint.
- In December we publish the 500 original forecast lines, each with its secret random string.
- Run any line through SHA-256. The result must match the fingerprint with the same number. If one character had changed, it would not match.
The scoring rules were fixed before any question resolved. Their fingerprint is line 4 of the commitments file.
Files, published unchanged
- Commitments file
- SHA-256 4e890df6ed3ce2ff436e8d4a90c1daa87155226306eaafa7131496317085c568
- Scoring rules
- SHA-256 495f06f46f688b5d30b10dee75a95686d0a6d39c74206a72626b78dfc1286a1f
- Round 7 lock
- aaa025ab46f7801dc859b32043ad4429dab6a8670d8fbb1f29abea7abb15b526
- Round 8 lock
- 089411259887f36d09afce14f24e12753e9dcd06d5913ded85f51e144f1b42e0
How we will score
The headline score stays the same as earlier rounds: how many forecasts were right, and the Brier score. From Round 7 we also report a log score, calibration, and skill against two simple baselines. Where a prediction market asked a close match, we score its price on lock day next to ours. These extra lines never replace the official score.
Research and forecasts by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. Locked 4 November 2026.