SBM Intelligence

SBM Intelligence is a Lagos-based research and intelligence firm covering Nigerian and West African politics, security and socio-economic conditions, for businesses, media and development organisations.

Tier 2Organisation · Company (private)Lagos, NigeriaGeopolitical & political risk

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At a glance

Entity level: Organisation
Type: Company (private)
Flagship output: Nigeria 2027 Voter Sentiment Tracker (latest: Inaugural release, June 2026)
Category: Geopolitical & political risk
Also covers: Strategic & country intelligence
Tier: Tier 2: Leading Nigerian geopolitical intelligence firm; widely cited election forecasts
Headquarters: Lagos, Nigeria
Coverage: Nigeria and West Africa politics, security, socio-economics
Public access: Mixed
Latest activity seen: Jun 2026
Evidence: Active in 2025 to 26

How it produces intelligence

Field surveys and polling, price indices and analyst research on security and political economy, published via Substack, reports and a podcast.

Risk themes

Elections & politicsConflict & securityTerrorism & crimeMacroeconomySocial unrest

Focus regions

Sub-Saharan AfricaNigeria

Leadership

Ikemesit Effiong, Managing Partner, SBM Intelligence

Links

Official website Research hub Newsletter Podcast

What it publishes

Output	Type	Cadence	Latest edition	Date
Nigeria 2027 Voter Sentiment Tracker	Survey	Irregular	Inaugural release	Jun 2026	Read report
Jollof Index	Index	Quarterly			Visit site
SBM Intelligence podcast	Podcast	Weekly			Read report

Latest findings

Recent public risk calls by SBM Intelligence, summarised in our own words. They are its views, not 311's. Follow each source for the original.

In SBM's first 2027 voter tracker (about 1,000 likely voters), roughly 80% say Nigeria is heading the wrong way.
Jun 2026 · Horizon: to 2027 election · Source: SBM Intelligence: Media mentions this week
Tracker shows President Tinubu deeply unpopular (net -58.5) and Peter Obi strongly favoured (net +58.3); NDC leads party preference.
Jun 2026 · Horizon: to 2027 election · Source: SBM Intelligence: Media mentions this week
Insecurity and terrorism are voters' top concern at 45%; dissatisfaction exceeds 88% in four geopolitical zones.
Jun 2026 · Horizon: 2026 · Source: SBM Intelligence: Media mentions this week
SBM argues Nigeria's centralised policing model slows emergency response to insecurity.
Jun 2026 · Horizon: Structural · Source: SBM Intelligence: Media mentions this week

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Questions about SBM Intelligence

What is SBM Intelligence?

How does SBM Intelligence produce its intelligence?

Field surveys and polling, price indices and analyst research on security and political economy, published via Substack, reports and a podcast.

Where is SBM Intelligence based?

SBM Intelligence is based in Lagos, Nigeria.

What does SBM Intelligence cover?

Its work covers elections & politics, conflict & security, terrorism & crime, macroeconomy, social unrest, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria.

Profile compiled by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit from public sources. Last checked 21 Oct 2026. Listing is not a ranking or an endorsement. Evidence source. Is this your organisation? Request a correction.