AI has learnt to predict heart attacks more accurately than doctors
Every year millions of people die from heart disease and this new system could save thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of extra lives
Cite or link to this article
Griffin, M. (2017) 'AI has learnt to predict heart attacks more accurately than doctors', 311 Institute, 29 April. Available at: https://www.311institute.com/ai-has-learnt-to-predict-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-doctors/ (Accessed: 1 October 2026).
Every year an estimated 20 million people die from heart disease, but now, hot on the heels of an artificial intelligence (AI) system that can predict death, a team of researchers from the University of Nottingham, the same university that's found a way to regrow teeth from stem cells, have developed a machine learning algorithm that can predict an individuals likelihood of having a heart attack, or a stroke, better than any doctor.
Over the past few decades the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC-AHA) has developed a series of guidelines to help doctors evaluate a patient's cardiovascular risk, based on eight factors that include age, cholesterol level and blood pressure. And average, this system correctly guesses a person's risk of getting heart disease with an accuracy of 72.8 percent.
You might think that’s already good enough – but Stephen Weng and his team wanted to make it even better so they built four computer learning algorithms and fed them data from over 380,000 patients.
Firstly, the new system used 295,000 records to build its internal predictive models, and then it used the remaining 85,000 records to test and refine them, and the result? A 74.5 to 76.4 percent accuracy and 1.6 percent fewer false alarms. After all, you don’t want to be told you’re likely to have a heart attack if you aren’t – doctors aren’t beasts you know…
Translating all of that into normal language what this all means is that out of the 85,000 records it analysed the new model could have saved 355 lives, but interestingly the AI system identified a number of risk factors and predictors not covered in the existing guidelines, like severe mental illness and the consumption of oral corticosteroids.
"There's a lot of interaction in biological systems," said Weng, “that's the reality of the human body. What computer science allows us to do is to explore those associations."
So, as another AI moves in on human territory – and beats us, again – this time we should be thankful, but as surprising, and perhaps as shocking as this new announcement might be, don’t have a coronary. Chill, eat salad and watch the clouds pass by.
FAQ
Why does this matter?
Every year millions of people die from heart disease and this new system could save thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of extra lives
About the author
Matthew Griffin Founder, 311 Institute
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath."
Read full bio
Matthew Griffin is a multi-award winning Futurist and expert in Disruption and Innovation, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Technology, who NASA have described as a "walking encyclopaedia of the future" and a "futurist Polymath." 15-time best selling author of the "Codex of the Future" series, Matthew is the Founder and Futurist in Chief of the 311 Institute, a global Futures and Deep Futures advisory firm working with royal households, world leaders, G7, G20, and G77 governments, NGOs, and multi-national mid and mega cap firms to help them explore, shape, and lead the next 50 years of business and society.
An award-winning YouTube creator with over a million followers, with an unrivalled global reach and impact, Matthew is a highly sought-after international keynote speaker, lecturer, and mentor who collaborates with global leaders through the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to shape pivotal initiatives such as the UN’s AI for Humanity program, the United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN COP), and the World Economic Forum in Davos.
As the former Global Head of Cloud, National Security, and Enterprise Sales for companies including Atos, Dell-EMC, and IBM, Matthew has a proven track record of building multi-billion dollar business units and turning failing divisions into market leaders. His ability to identify, analyse, and communicate the implications of hundreds of emerging technologies and trends is unparalleled, and his insights are trusted by many of the world’s most respected organisations, including ABB, Accenture, Adidas, AON, ARM, BCG, Centrica, Citi, Coca-Cola, Dentons, Deloitte, Dow Jones, EY, Google, KPMG, Lego, Legal & General, LinkedIn, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, RWE, Samsung, Siemens AG and Siemens Energy, T-Mobile, UBS, VISA, Walmart, Workday, Worldpay and many others.
Regularly featured in the global media including the AP, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, Discovery, Forbes, Khaleej Times, Telegraph, TIME, ViacomCBS, WIRED, and the WSJ, Matthews mission is to help organisations create a fair and sustainable future whose benefits are shared by everyone irrespective of their ability, background, or circumstances.
What future do you need to see?
Choose one to get started on biotech and enhanced humans and the future of your organisation.
Sources and further reading
- American College of Cardiology acc.org
- American Heart Association heart.org
Source: first published by the 311 Institute on 29 April 2017. Cite as: Griffin, M. (2017). AI has learnt to predict heart attacks more accurately than doctors. 311 Institute. https://www.311institute.com/ai-has-learnt-to-predict-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-doctors/
You are welcome to quote this article with credit and a link to the original.