Bakers
Machines can already do 20% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 58%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Bakers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 20% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2034, and 58% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 236,200 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $37,160 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 72% for contact with people.
- Also called: Bakery Worker, Bread Baker, Cake Baker, Cake Decorator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary | 11% | 3% to 30% | |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills | 11% | 20% to 60% | |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products | 11% | 20% to 60% | |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery | 10% | 20% to 60% | |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes | 7% | 20% to 60% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills bakers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Furniture Finishers50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $44,540
- Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials56% of tasks by 2035 · US median $35,060
- Upholsterers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $46,340
- Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $37,800
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Bakers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2034. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of bakers?
Machines can do 20% of the tasks of bakers today and 58% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 51-3011.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Bakers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/bakers/