Commercial Divers
Machines can already do 22% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 58%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Commercial Divers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 22% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2033, and 58% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 3,450 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $72,990 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 79% for contact with people.
- Also called: Diver, Diver Tender, Diving Coordinator, Hard Hat Diver.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges | 13% | 3% to 30% | |
| Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin | 11% | 40% to 80% | |
| Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones | 7% | 30% to 54% | |
| Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment | 7% | 30% to 75% | |
| Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions | 7% | 55% to 85% | |
| Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures | 7% | 20% to 60% | |
| Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools | 5% | 3% to 30% | |
| Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers | 5% | 3% to 30% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills commercial divers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Millwrights50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $65,700
- Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $79,870
- Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment50% of tasks by 2035 · US median $84,890
- Ship Engineers55% of tasks by 2035 · US median $109,530
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Commercial Divers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2033. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of commercial divers?
Machines can do 22% of the tasks of commercial divers today and 58% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 49-9092.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Commercial Divers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/commercial-divers/