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US job code 49-9044People-facingHigh change by 2035

Millwrights

Machines can already do 14% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 50%. The job changes before it disappears.

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Share of the work machines can do

Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050

100%75%50%25%20262035205014%Half: 2035

Millwrights in 2026: the short answer

  • Today: machines can do 14% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
  • Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2035, and 50% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
  • Size: 40,330 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $65,700 a year.
  • Contact with people: it scores 78% for contact with people.
  • Also called: Maintenance Mechanic, Maintenance Millwright, Millwright, Millwright Business Representative (Millwright Business Rep).
  • Competency here means how well the best AI model, tool or robot available can do a task, scored out of 100: today using the best available now, and for later years the 311 prediction of what AI and robots will be able to do.

Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.

Machines can do today
14%of the tasks, 2026
By 2035
50%half the tasks by 2035
US median pay
$65,700a year, May 2025
US jobs
40k40,330 people
Contact with people
78%how people-facing
Step 1AnticipateWhat is changing? Free to everyone

How the work changes, task by task

The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.

TaskShare of the dayMachines can do2026 to 2035
Replace defective parts of machine, or adjust clearances and alignment of moving parts11%
3% to 30%
Align machines or equipment, using hoists, jacks, hand tools, squares, rules, micrometers, lasers, or plumb bobs9%
20% to 60%
Assemble and install equipment, using hand tools and power tools9%
20% to 60%
Conduct preventative maintenance and repair, and lubricate machines and equipment8%
3% to 30%
Dismantle machines, using hammers, wrenches, crowbars, and other hand tools7%
3% to 30%
Assemble machines, and bolt, weld, rivet, or otherwise fasten them to foundation or other structures, using hand tools and power tools6%
20% to 60%
Move machinery and equipment, using hoists, dollies, rollers, and trucks6%
20% to 60%
Weld, repair, and fabricate equipment or machinery6%
20% to 60%
Step 2AssessWhy should I care? Free to everyone

The skills this job runs on

The skills millwrights use most, most used first.

Physical and manualTrade craftsProfessionalism and work ethicAnalysis and dataEngineering designDesign and contentTeaching and trainingInterdisciplinary thinkingOperations and processProduction and makingAdaptability and resilienceCollaborationCommunication

Human value: what makes people in this job hard to replace

How much millwrights rely on each one, from 0 to 10. 311 estimates, medium confidence.

  • Go-to problem solver6/10
  • Trust and reliability6/10
  • Know-how about the organisation6/10
  • Network and relationships4/10
  • Mentoring and developing others5/10
  • Culture and morale5/10
  • Initiative beyond the role3/10
  • Calm in a crisis4/10
  • Bridge between teams4/10
  • Reputation and influence3/10

Safer jobs nearby

Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.

Step 3ActWhat do I do about it? Free plan and up
What do I do about it

What should you do about it?

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Questions

When will machines do half of the tasks of Millwrights?

Machines can do half of its tasks by 2035. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.

Will AI take the job of millwrights?

Machines can do 14% of the tasks of millwrights today and 50% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.

Sources and citing

Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 49-9044.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring, forecast and human value: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit (human value scores are 311 estimates, medium confidence); after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.

Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Millwrights: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/millwrights/