Emergency Medicine Physicians
Machines can already do 27% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 47%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Emergency Medicine Physicians in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 27% of this job's tasks.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2036, and 47% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 32,880 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $335,550 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 96% for contact with people.
- Also called: Attending Emergency Physician, Attending Physician, Emergency MD (Emergency Medicine Doctor), Emergency Medicine Physician (EM Physician).
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collect and record patient information, such as medical history or examination results, in electronic or handwritten medical records | 17% | 56% to 76% | |
| Conduct primary patient assessments that include information from prior medical care | 13% | 3% to 25% | |
| Analyze records, examination information, or test results to diagnose medical conditions | 10% | 64% to 78% | |
| Select, request, perform, or interpret diagnostic procedures, such as laboratory tests, electrocardiograms, emergency ultrasounds, and radiographs | 8% | 3% to 25% | |
| Consult with hospitalists and other professionals, such as social workers, regarding patients' hospital admission, continued observation, transition of care, or discharge | 7% | 27% to 46% | |
| Monitor patients' conditions, and reevaluate treatments, as necessary | 7% | 3% to 25% | |
| Communicate likely outcomes of medical diseases or traumatic conditions to patients or their representatives | 6% | 32% to 50% | |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff | 6% | 9% to 23% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills emergency medicine physicians use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Sports Medicine Physicians42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $265,930
- Hospitalists41% of tasks by 2035 · US median $265,930
- Psychiatric Technicians32% of tasks by 2035 · US median $45,130
- Pediatricians, General43% of tasks by 2035 · US median $210,040
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Emergency Medicine Physicians?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2036. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of emergency medicine physicians?
Machines can do 27% of the tasks of emergency medicine physicians today and 47% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 29-1214.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Emergency Medicine Physicians: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/emergency-medicine-physicians/