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US job code 45-4021Medium change by 2035

Fallers

Machines can already do 13% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 46%. The job changes before it disappears.

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Share of the work machines can do

Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050

100%75%50%25%20262035205013%Half: 2036

Fallers in 2026: the short answer

  • Today: machines can do 13% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
  • Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2036, and 46% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
  • Size: 3,130 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $52,100 a year.
  • Contact with people: it scores 48% for contact with people.
  • Also called: Bucker, Cutter Operator, Feller, Logger.

Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.

Machines can do today
13%of the tasks, 2026
By 2035
46%half the tasks by 2036
US median pay
$52,100a year, May 2025
US jobs
3k3,130 people
Contact with people
48%how people-facing
Step 1AnticipateWhat is changing? Free to everyone

How the work changes, task by task

The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.

TaskShare of the dayMachines can do2026 to 2035
Trim off the tops and limbs of trees, using chainsaws, delimbers, or axes15%
20% to 60%
Measure felled trees and cut them into specified log lengths, using chain saws and axes13%
20% to 60%
Control the direction of a tree's fall by scoring cutting lines with axes, sawing undercuts along scored lines with chainsaws, knocking slabs from cuts with single-bit axes, and driving wedges11%
3% to 30%
Saw back-cuts, leaving sufficient sound wood to control direction of fall10%
20% to 60%
Clear brush from work areas and escape routes, and cut saplings and other trees from direction of falls, using axes, chainsaws, or bulldozers9%
3% to 30%
Maintain and repair chainsaws and other equipment, cleaning, oiling, and greasing equipment, and sharpening equipment properly9%
3% to 30%
Appraise trees for certain characteristics, such as twist, rot, and heavy limb growth, and gauge amount and direction of lean, to determine how to control the direction of a tree's fall with the least damage8%
3% to 30%
Determine position, direction, and depth of cuts to be made, and placement of wedges or jacks5%
25% to 55%
Step 2AssessWhy should I care? Free to everyone

The skills this job runs on

The skills fallers use most, most used first.

Physical and manualProfessionalism and work ethicTrade craftsAdaptability and resilienceSelf-management

Safer jobs nearby

Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.

Step 3ActWhat do I do about it? Free plan and up
What do I do about it

What should you do about it?

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Questions

When will machines do half of the tasks of Fallers?

Machines can do half of its tasks by 2036. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.

Will AI take the job of fallers?

Machines can do 13% of the tasks of fallers today and 46% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.

Sources and citing

Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 45-4021.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.

Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Fallers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/fallers/