First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers
Machines can already do 31% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 56%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 31% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 4% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2033, and 56% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 114,110 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $48,590 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 84% for contact with people.
- Also called: Adult Family Home Program Manager, Aquatics Supervisor, Bar and Restaurant Manager, Clinical Care Coordinator.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct or coordinate the activities of workers, such as hotel staff or hair stylists | 17% | 10% to 27% | |
| Observe and evaluate workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications | 12% | 25% to 50% | |
| Train workers in proper operational procedures and functions and explain company policies | 9% | 32% to 58% | |
| Assign work schedules, following work requirements, to ensure quality and timely delivery of service | 9% | 25% to 50% | |
| Resolve customer complaints regarding worker performance or services rendered | 7% | 20% to 40% | |
| Inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas such as cleanliness or maintenance | 7% | 30% to 75% | |
| Meet with managers or other supervisors to stay informed of changes affecting operations | 6% | 45% to 80% | |
| Recruit and hire staff members | 4% | 71% to 82% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills first-line supervisors of personal service workers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $65,030
- Librarians and Media Collections Specialists54% of tasks by 2035 · US median $68,270
- Special Education Teachers, Elementary School52% of tasks by 2035
- Social and Community Service Managers54% of tasks by 2035 · US median $80,390
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2033. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of first-line supervisors of personal service workers?
Machines can do 31% of the tasks of first-line supervisors of personal service workers today and 56% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 39-1022.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-personal-service-workers/