First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives
Machines can already do 28% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 47%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 28% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2037, and 47% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 154,610 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $106,040 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 91% for contact with people.
- Also called: Captain, Deputy Sheriff, Detective Sergeant, Lieutenant.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records | 14% | 63% to 81% | |
| Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations | 9% | 9% to 23% | |
| Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers | 8% | 16% to 33% | |
| Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates | 7% | 22% to 42% | |
| Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties | 7% | 22% to 42% | |
| Train staff in proper police work procedures | 7% | 22% to 42% | |
| Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff | 6% | 9% to 23% | |
| Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary | 6% | 27% to 46% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills first-line supervisors of police and detectives use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Fish and Game Wardens39% of tasks by 2035 · US median $74,060
- Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $76,210
- Fire Inspectors and Investigators46% of tasks by 2035 · US median $75,920
- First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers42% of tasks by 2035 · US median $93,530
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2037. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of first-line supervisors of police and detectives?
Machines can do 28% of the tasks of first-line supervisors of police and detectives today and 47% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 33-1012.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-police-and-detectives/