Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers
Machines can already do 22% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 42%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 22% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 12% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2038, and 42% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 670,520 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $76,210 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 87% for contact with people.
- Also called: Deputy Sheriff, K-9 Handler (Canine Handler), Law Enforcement Officer, Patrol Officer.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record facts to prepare reports that document incidents and activities | 17% | 76% to 82% | |
| Drive vehicles or patrol specific areas to detect law violators, issue citations, and make arrests | 11% | 3% to 25% | |
| Provide for public safety by maintaining order, responding to emergencies, protecting people and property, enforcing motor vehicle and criminal laws, and promoting good community relations | 9% | 3% to 25% | |
| Monitor, note, report, and investigate suspicious persons and situations, safety hazards, and unusual or illegal activity in patrol area | 6% | 27% to 64% | |
| Monitor traffic to ensure motorists observe traffic regulations and exhibit safe driving procedures | 6% | 3% to 25% | |
| Identify, pursue, and arrest suspects and perpetrators of criminal acts | 5% | 3% to 25% | |
| Investigate illegal or suspicious activities | 5% | 3% to 25% | |
| Patrol specific area on foot, horseback, or motorized conveyance, responding promptly to calls for assistance | 5% | 3% to 25% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills police and sheriff's patrol officers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Fish and Game Wardens39% of tasks by 2035 · US median $74,060
- First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers40% of tasks by 2035 · US median $77,970
- Correctional Officers and Jailers38% of tasks by 2035 · US median $58,940
- Paramedics39% of tasks by 2035 · US median $60,600
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2038. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of police and sheriff's patrol officers?
Machines can do 22% of the tasks of police and sheriff's patrol officers today and 42% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 33-3051.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/police-and-sheriff-s-patrol-officers/