Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Machines can already do 30% of this job's tasks. By 2035 that rises to 72%. The job changes before it disappears.
Share of the work machines can do
Worldwide baseline, 2026 to 2050
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers in 2026: the short answer
- Today: machines can do 30% of this job's tasks, and AI use is already seen in 0% of them.
- Forecast: machines can do half of its tasks by 2032, and 72% by 2035, according to the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit.
- Size: 2,062,040 people do this job in the United States, on a median pay of $58,640 a year.
- Contact with people: it scores 66% for contact with people.
- Also called: CDL Driver (Commercial Driver's License Driver), Driver, Line Haul Driver, Log Truck Driver.
Updated by the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit. These are worldwide baseline figures; the Workforce Starburst shows them for your country. Go deeper: How ready am I? or an executive briefing.
How the work changes, task by task
The tasks that take up most of the day, with the share of each that machines can do in 2026 (dark) and 2035 (pink). Worldwide baseline.
| Task | Share of the day | Machines can do | 2026 to 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials | 63% | 30% to 75% | |
| Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order | 4% | 3% to 30% | |
| Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary | 4% | 30% to 75% | |
| Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers | 3% | 40% to 80% | |
| Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy | 2% | 50% to 85% | |
| Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure | 2% | 3% to 30% | |
| Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required | 2% | 50% to 85% | |
| Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations | 2% | 70% to 95% |
The skills this job runs on
The skills heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers use most, most used first.
Safer jobs nearby
Jobs with a similar skill shape where machines can do less of the work by 2035.
- Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers65% of tasks by 2035 · US median $60,600
- Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity70% of tasks by 2035 · US median $59,050
- Highway Maintenance Workers62% of tasks by 2035 · US median $50,260
- Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters59% of tasks by 2035 · US median $78,000
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Questions
When will machines do half of the tasks of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?
Machines can do half of its tasks by 2032. That is the worldwide baseline from the 311 Workforce Starburst, before adjusting for country.
Will AI take the job of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers?
Machines can do 30% of the tasks of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers today and 72% by 2035. The job changes before it disappears: the routine tasks move first.
Sources and citing
Tasks and their share of the day: O*NET 31.0, occupation 53-3032.00 (US Department of Labor, CC BY 4.0). Pay and jobs: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. AI use today: Anthropic Economic Index (CC BY). Scoring and forecast: the 311 Strategic Intelligence Unit; after 2035 the figures extend each trend, with lower confidence. Foresight, not advice.
Cite as: 311 Institute (2026). Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: the outlook to 2050. 311 Workforce Starburst. https://www.311institute.com/jobs/heavy-and-tractor-trailer-truck-drivers/